- In Friday’s publication we highlighted the more bullish threat for the German benchmark stock index future, the DAX forecast.
- The gains so far this week by share indices globally have reinforced the surge higher last Thursday, after the far better than expected US Employment report for June, which produced bullish breakout attempts from multi-week range environments from June.
- Here we look at the US benchmark stock index future, our S&P 500 forecast for today and into July.
S&P 500 day trade outlook: Bull threat to key 3231.25 peak
Day trade update and view
A strong rally Monday above 3180.75 resistance to 3186.0, to build on the very early July surge just above 3145.75/56.25 resistances, having rejected bearish forces from the erratic, but slightly negative consolidation theme from mid-June, to keep the bias to the upside for Tuesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 3186.0 and 3200.0; a break here aims for the key cycle high at 3231.25 and maybe 3260.0.
- But below 3121.25 opens risk down to the 3095/89 support region and possibly the 3062.75/56.0 area.
S&P 500 intermediate-term outlook
The mid-June push below 2965.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a broader range seen as 2923.75 to 3231.25.
- Upside risks: Above 3231.25 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to target 3397.5 maybe 3500.0.
- Downside risks: Below 2923.75 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to target 2760.25, 2620.75, 2424.75 and maybe 2174.0.
