Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. stocks rebounded modestly last week as falling Treasury yields, a strong 7-year bond auction, and easing tariff tensions lifted investor sentiment, helping major indexes recover some prior losses despite late-week volatility.
- A delayed EU tariff hike, stalled China talks, and mounting legal challenges to President Trump’s trade policy have deepened uncertainty, leaving markets rattled and investor fatigue growing.
- Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected earnings and bullish AI outlook sparked a global rally in semiconductor stocks, reinforcing investor confidence in the sector’s resilience despite trade restrictions and geopolitical headwinds.
- U.S. inflation eased in April, with the Fed’s preferred gauge falling to its lowest level since 2021, but persistent housing costs and economic uncertainty suggest the path to the 2% target remains uncertain.
- Markets are closely watching Friday’s U.S. jobs report and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks for signals on rate policy, as forecasts point to slower hiring and steady unemployment amid ongoing inflation and trade uncertainties.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages pushed notably higher.
- US and European bond yields were lower on the week
- The US Dollar Index marked time in erratic consolidation mode near recent lows.
- Gold futures were also little changed on the week, also in consolidation mode.
- Oil futures prices were also in consolidation mode, little changed on the week.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activities this week are the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday and the same from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US Employment Report on Friday. Some other releases of note are the Global PMI data on Monday and Wednesday, EU CPI data on Tuesday and EU GDP data on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 06/02/2025 | Global Manufacturing PMI |
| 06/03/2025 | EU CPI and Unemployment Rate; US Factory Orders |
| 06/04/2025 | Global Service and Composite PMI; BoC Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement |
| 06/05/2025 | German Factory Orders; ECB Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement |
| 06/06/2025 | German Industrial Production; EU GDP, PPI and Retail Sales; US and Canadian Employment Reports |
