- The Fed cut rates as many forecasters had expected on Wednesday 18th September by 0.25%.
- However, they also signalled that they are now likely on hold, with another rate cut probably unlikely in 2019.
- Global equity averages initially turned lower, but then US markets staged strong rebounds into the close on Wednesday, though have drifted lower during Asian trading hours.
- Here we focus on the US, broad benchmark average, the S&P 500, which retains both a short- and intermediate-term bull bias.
S&P 500 Bull tone
An erratic session Wednesday through the Fed Meeting, with a selloff and then a strong rebound from just below 2981.25 support, from 2978.5), to then push above 3006.5 resistance for a modestly bullish outside daily pattern, to keep risks higher for Thursday.
The late August push above 2978.5 set an intermediate-term bull theme.
- We see an upside bias for 3011.0; break here aims for 3023.75, then the record high at 3029.5, maybe and then towards 3038.5.
- But below 2988/87 aims for 2978.5 and then 2972.0, maybe 2957.25.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 3000.
- Higher targets would be 3029.5 and 3050.0.
- What Changes This? Below 2851.75 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 2810.25 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.
4 Hour S&P 500 E-Mini Future Chart