Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities were mixed as earnings season got underway, with the Nasdaq down 0.7%, the S&P 500 lower by 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also down 0.3% for the week, while mid-cap and small-cap stocks gained, as consumer defensives and real estate led sector performance and higher Treasury yields, alongside firmer gold and oil prices, reflected shifting market expectations.
- US inflation eased again in December, with headline CPI near 2.7% and core inflation around 2.6%, supporting the view that price pressures are gradually cooling, though persistently high food and energy costs mean the Federal Reserve is likely to remain cautious and keep policy steady in the near term.
- US banks delivered a mixed start to fourth-quarter earnings, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo posting uneven results while Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs exceeded expectations, and Taiwan Semiconductor stood out with a 35% profit jump and strong guidance, highlighting continued strength in semiconductors and AI.
- Investor anxiety surged this week as the Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell and efforts to remove Governor Lisa Cook coincided with rising global flashpoints, including unrest in Iran, the capture of Venezuela’s president, and US threats toward Greenland.
- US markets reopen on Tuesday after Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday for a busy week as investors focus on November’s PCE Inflation and revised Q3 GDP data, Global Flash PMIs, and key corporate earnings including Netflix and Intel, all likely to influence market sentiment and Fed rate expectations.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were mostly lower on the week.
- US Treasury bond yields were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved to a multi-year week high.
- Gold futures hit another new record high.
- Oil futures prices rallied through the first half of the week to a multi-month high, before setting back.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central bank attention this week centres on the People’s Bank of China’s Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference on Friday.
Macro Data Watch: Key macroeconomic releases this week include US PCE inflation and GDP figures on Thursday. Other releases include Chinese GDP on Monday, the UK Employment Report and CPI data on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the Global Flash PMI readings on Friday.
Earnings Watch: US fourth-quarter earnings season continues this week, with Netflix in focus on Tuesday, followed by key results from Johnson & Johnson on Wednesday and Intel on Thursday.
US stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday 19 January due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 01/19/2026 | US stock and bond market closed due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day; Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales; EU HICP; Canadian CPI |
| 01/20/2026 | PBoC Interest Rate Decision; German PPI; UK Employment Report; US ADP Employment Change 4-week Average |
| 01/21/2026 | US Pending Home Sales; UK CPI, PPI and RPI; US President Trump speech |
| 01/22/2026 | Japanese Trade Report; ECB Monetary Policy Meetings Accounts; EU Consumer Confidence; US GDP, PCE, Personal Income and Spending |
| 01/23/2026 | Global Flash PMI; Japanese CPI; UK Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales; BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement; Canadian Retail Sales; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectation |
| Date | Major Earnings Data |
| 01/19/2026 | Nothing of note |
| 01/20/2026 | Netflix; Interactive Brokers; 3M; Discovery |
| 01/21/2026 | J&J; Charles Schwab; Prologis |
| 01/22/2026 | Louis Vuitton ADR; GE Aerospace; P&G; Intel; Abbott Labs; KLA Corp; Intuitive Surgical; Capital One Financial |
| 01/23/2026 | Nothing of note |
