Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US stocks rallied Friday on Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, lifting the Dow and S&P 500 to record highs and the Russell 2000 to an eight-month peak, while Treasuries, oil, and global equities also strengthened, helping offset earlier losses despite continued Nasdaq weakness.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled at Jackson Hole that rising risks to the labor market and restrictive policy may warrant rate cuts, lifting market expectations for a September move and sparking rallies in stocks and bonds.
- U.S. business activity accelerated in August, with the Flash Composite PMI hitting 55.4 on strong manufacturing and steady services growth, signaling robust demand and hiring but also higher tariff-driven cost pressures.
- A week after Trump’s Alaska meeting with Putin, efforts to secure a peace settlement in Ukraine remain stalled, with vague US security pledges, Russian resistance, and an uncertain Putin-Zelenskyy summit highlighting ongoing diplomatic deadlock and transatlantic divisions.
- Nvidia’s Q2 earnings on Wednesday, boosted by strong AI and data center demand, alongside key US data, including July PCE inflation Friday, will provide crucial signals for both the tech giant and broader market direction.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages rebounded Friday, mostly higher for the week.
- US and European bond yields were lower on the week
- The US Dollar Index plunged Friday to a multi-week low.
- Gold futures surged high Friday and were up on the week.
- Oil futures prices rallied through the week to a two-week peak.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: It’s a quiet week for central banks, with the sole focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes due Tuesday.
Macro Data Watch: This week’s key US data include GDP on Thursday and the PCE inflation report on Friday. Also on Friday, investors will be watching Japanese CPI, German Retail Sales and CPI, as well as Canadian GDP for additional global signals.
Earnings Watch: The US Q2 earnings season is winding down, with Nvidia’s report on Wednesday standing out as the key release this week.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 08/25/2025 | UK Bank Holiday, markets closed |
| 08/26/2025 | RBA Meeting Minutes; US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence and Housing Prices Index |
| 08/27/2025 | Australian CPI; German Consumer Confidence |
| 08/28/2025 | EU Business Climate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator; US PCE (QoQ), GDP |
| 08/29/2025 | Japanese CPI, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate; German Retail Sales, CPI and Unemployment Report; Canadian GDP; US PCE (MoM) (YoY), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
