Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. equities ended a holiday shortened week with mixed performance, as small-cap and growth stocks outpaced large caps, while falling Treasury yields and global geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment.
- The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting, maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent uncertainties, while still signaling two potential cuts later this year despite mounting economic and geopolitical pressures.
- The U.S. military’s entry into the Israel-Iran war has sharply escalated Middle East tensions, while renewed global trade disputes and looming tariff hikes compound economic uncertainty and raise the risk of heightened market volatility.
- Markets brace for a busy end to June, as investors monitor global PMI data, the US PCE inflation report, and Powell’s congressional testimony, amid geopolitical tension and tariff concerns.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were mixed to slightly lower.
- US and European bond yields were slightly lower on the week.
- The US Dollar Index moved modestly higher from a multi-year low posted in mid-June.
- Gold futures prices declined last week from close to the 2025 record high in mid-June.
- Oil futures prices surged to a new multi-month peak.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central Bank activity is light this week, the main focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Macro Data Watch: It is a busy week for macro data, the main releases will be the Global Flash PMI on Monday and US PCE on Thursday and Friday. Some other releases of note are the Canadian CPI on Tuesday, US GDP on Thursday and UK GDP on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 06/23/2025 | Global Flash PMI; US Existing Home Sales Change |
| 06/24/2025 | Canadian CPI; US Consumer Confidence and Housing Price Index; Fed’s Chair Powell testifies |
| 06/25/2025 | Australian CPI; US New Home Sales Change; Fed’s Chair Powell testifies |
| 06/26/2025 | German Consumer Confidence Survey; US PCE(QoQ), Durable Goods Order and GDP |
| 06/27/2025 | Japanese CPI and Retail Trade; UK GDP; Canadian GDP; US PCE (MoM) (YoY), Personal Income and Spending and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; EU Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment |
