Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities rallied into the Thanksgiving break, with the S&P 500 up 3.73%, the Nasdaq rising 4.91%, and the Dow advancing 3.2%, while global markets also gained as expectations for a December Fed rate cut boosted sentiment.
- September Retail Sales and November Consumer Confidence came in below expectations, signaling softer consumer spending and weakening sentiment, yet markets rose over the week on expectations of a dovish Fed and a potential December rate cut.
- Markets have rapidly repriced the outlook for monetary policy, with dovish signals from Fed officials, softer labour-market data and updated forecasts from major banks driving December rate-cut expectations back above 80% as investors increasingly view another 25bp move as the most likely outcome heading into the final FOMC meeting of the year.
- Markets will closely watch a series of global PMIs and the delayed September US PCE inflation report for signals on growth and inflation that could confirm or alter expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were notably higher.
- US and European bond yields were slightly lower on the week.
- The US Dollar Index moved lower, down from a multi-month higher.
- Gold futures pushed up close to the November high.
- Oil futures prices chopped sideways in a range.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central bank activity remains light this week, but markets will monitor comments from Fed and ECB officials, with particular attention on Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Monday.
Macro Data Watch: Key macro releases this week include Global PMI on Monday and Wednesday and the US September PCE on Friday, alongside notable data such as the EU HICP on Tuesday, the US ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, and EU GDP and Canadian employment figures on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 12/01/2025 | Global Manufacturing PMI |
| 12/02/2025 | EU HICP and Unemployment Rate |
| 12/03/2025 | Global Composite and Service PMI; EU PPI; US ADP Employment Change |
| 12/04/2025 | EU Retail Sales; US Challenger Job Cuts and Initial Jobless Claims; Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index |
| 12/05/2025 | German Factory Orders; EU GDP and Employment Change; Canadian Employment Report; US PCE (Sep), Personal Income (Sep), Personal Spending (Sep), Factory Orders (Oct) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec) |
