The Forex Zone Forecasts – A solid US Dollar tone with risk on theme


The US Dollar has remained firm, though slightly hesitant driven by positivity from the US-Sino trade talks and upbeat comments from various Fed speakers on the US economy.

The Forex Zone looks at day trade possibilities and forecasts for the major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD: Prod at key 1.0989

A Thursday prod just below key 1.0989 for an intermediate-term shift to neutral, BUT with ongoing risks now for an intermediate-term shift to bearish below 1.0939.

Despite an intraday bounce from 1.0988, whilst capped at 1.1043 we see risks back lower for Friday.

  • We see a downside bias for 1.0988; break here aims for 1.0959 and maybe critical 1.0939.
  • But above 1.1043 quickly opens risk up to 1.1055, maybe towards 1.1092/93.
eurusd chart

GBPUSD: Upside bias

A Thursday rebound to reject the minor Wednesday setback that held above the 1.2815/1.2799 support area, to retain upside forces from Monday’s surge up through the November down trend line and also 1.2832 and 1.2878 resistances, to leaves risks higher for Friday.

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2898; break here quickly aims for 1.2917 and maybe notable 1.2976.
  • But below 1.2815/2799 opens risk up to 1.2768, maybe 1.2749.

USDCAD: Setback, but we hold onto a rebound bias 

A setback Thursday and overnight below 1.3231 support (after Tuesday’s rebound from above 1.3207 support, from 1.3211), but whilst above 1.3211/07 we hold onto upside pressures from the earlier November push above key 1.3240 resistance, to keep risks to the upside Friday.

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3252; break here aims for 1.3270, maybe towards 1.3294.
  • But below 1.3211/07 aims for 1.3179 and opens risk down towards 1.3153.

AUDUSD: Intermediate-term shift to neutral and bear threat

The negative price action through key .6808/06 sets the bias lower again for Friday.

  • We see a downside bias for .6766; break here aims for .6749, maybe towards key .6720.
  • But above .6807 opens risk up to .6841 and maybe key .6865.

NZDUSD: Risks flip back lower

A Thursday selloff to surrender the .6379 support has damaged the positivity from Wednesday’s surge after the unexpected “no cut” decision from the RBNZ, to resume immediate downside risk, to flip the bias back lower for Friday.

  • We see a downside bias for .6357; break here aims for .6327 and .6320/17.
  • But above .6399/.6403 opens risk up to .6420 and maybe .6431.

USDJPY: Risks now lower for key 107.87

A plunge Thursday through the up trend line from August and notable chart support at 108.62, to reject the bull tone from the earlier November dip and a strong rally from this level (108.62) to a new recovery high (at 109.49), to switch the bias lower into Friday.

  • We see a downside bias for 108.22/18; break here aims for key 107.87 and maybe towards 107.33.
  • But above 108.70 opens risk up to 109.15 and maybe towards 109.49.

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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