Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. indexes held near recent peaks despite modest weekly losses, as upbeat trade developments and solid economic fundamentals supported sentiment, echoing gains across key global markets.
- A limited but symbolically important US-UK trade agreement lifted market sentiment and risk assets, as investors welcomed reduced tariffs on key exports and the prospect of broader cooperation despite lingering uncertainties.
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady and signaled a cautious, data-driven approach amid rising uncertainty from tariffs, inflation risks, and political pressure, opting to wait for clearer economic signals before making its next move.
- Senior U.S. and Chinese officials have begun high-level negotiations in Geneva aimed at de-escalating a damaging trade war, though expectations remain low for immediate breakthroughs amid ongoing mistrust and unresolved disputes.
- Markets brace for a pivotal week as April inflation and Retail Sales data, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, and ongoing US-China trade talks converge to shape economic outlook and rate cut expectations.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages consolidated near multi-week highs.
- US and European bond were little changed on the week
- The US Dollar Index also marked time in consolidation mode.
- Gold futures were also little changed on the week.
- Oil futures prices moved slightly higher.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central Bank activity is quiet this week, the main focus will be on speeches from various Fed and ECB speakers throughout the week with particular focus on Fed’s Chair Powell Speech on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data releases this week are the US CPI on Tuesday and US Retail Sales on Thursday. Some other releases of note are the UK and EU GDP and US PPI all being released on Thursday, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index being released on Friday.
Earnings Watch: US Q2 earnings this week are quiet and coming to a close, with Cisco releasing their earnings on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 05/12/2025 | Nothing of note |
| 05/13/2025 | UK Retail Sales and Employment Report; US CPI |
| 05/14/2025 | German CPI |
| 05/15/2025 | UK and EU GDP; US PPI and Retail Sales; Fed’s Chair Powell Speech |
| 05/16/2025 | Japanese GDP; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
