Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Global equities advanced last week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow posting modest gains and moving closer to record highs, while supportive Fed expectations lifted sentiment across Europe and Asia despite mixed signals from commodities, crypto and global bond markets.
- US economic indicators showed a mixed picture in November, with manufacturing PMI contracting for the ninth consecutive month while services PMI expanded at their fastest pace since February, private payrolls declining by 32,000 (led by small businesses) and PCE inflation holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year, keeping the Fed’s policy options open ahead of its December meeting.
- The Federal Reserve’s final 2025 meeting on December 10 is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.50–3.75%, with markets closely watching Chair Powell’s press conference, updated economic projections, and recent inflation and labor data for guidance on the central bank’s policy path into 2026.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were higher, with US indices close to record levels..
- US and European bond yields were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved lower.
- Gold futures prodded slightly higher.
- Oil futures prices also prodded slightly higher.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central bank activity heats up this week, with the Federal Reserve set to release its Monetary Policy Statement, announce its Interest Rate Decision, and hold a Press Conference on Wednesday. Other key events include the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Policy Statement and Rate Decision on Tuesday, and the Bank of Canada’s Policy announcement and Rate Decision on Wednesday.
Macro Data Watch: Macro releases are relatively light this week, with key reports including Japanese GDP on Monday, Chinese CPI on Wednesday, and Germans HICP on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 12/08/2025 | Japanese GDP; Chinese Trade Report; German Industrial Production; EU Investor Confidence |
| 12/09/2025 | UK Retail Sales; RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Interest Rate Decision; US JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Employment Change 4-week Average |
| 12/10/2025 | Chinese CPI and PPI; BoC Monetary Policy Statement and Interest Rate Decision; Fed Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference; US Employment Cost Index and Monthly Budget Statement |
| 12/11/2025 | US Initial Jobless Claims |
| 12/12/2025 | German HICP; US GDP, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production |
