- In our article here on Monday we highlighted the bullish tone for US stock indices, focusing on the S&P 500, which continues its push higher.
- This market is now within striking distance of its all-time high at 3397.5 from Q1 this year, going into the release of the much-watched US Employment report today.
- The positive tone is intact despite US President Trump banning US transactions with Chinese apps, WeChat and Tik Tok in an Executive Order overnight.
- European indices continue to underperform their US counterparts, as we highlight in the video here with focus on the German DAX .
- But the spotlight here is on the US benchmark average, the S&P 500, for Friday and into mid-August.
S&P 500 day trade outlook: Bull trend intact, still eyeing the record high at 3397.5
Day trade update and view
A steady advance Thursday to another new cycle high at 3347.5 after Wednesday’s push higher to close the February bear gap at 3312.0-28.0, to build on this week’s firm rally above the latter July cycle high at 3284.5, to sustain bull forces from the mid-July rally through the key June cycle high at 3231.25 (for an intermediate-term bullish shift), to leave the threat to the upside for Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 3347.5 and 3351.0; a break here aims for 3375.0, maybe the record high at 3397.5 and 3400.0.
- But below 3300.5 targets 3278.75 and aims for 3254.75; below here possibly opens risk down to 3212.5.
S&P 500 intermediate-term outlook
The early July push above 3231.25 signalled an intermediate-term shift back to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 3397.5 and 3500.0.
- What changes this? Below 2983.5 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend to neutral; through 2923.75 to an intermediate-term bear trend.