Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities set fresh highs midweek but finished unevenly, with the Dow ending higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped as investors rotated out of technology into value and small-cap stocks, amid rising longer-term yields, weaker oil prices, and continued strength in precious metals.
- The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third straight meeting to 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a likely near-term pause while remaining data-dependent and keeping the possibility of further easing if labor market weakness and cooling inflation persist.
- This week’s US economic calendar is packed, with delayed October and November Payrolls, October Retail Sales, and November CPI releases set to provide crucial insights into labor market trends, consumer spending, and inflation, all of which will influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy in 2026.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were mixed, but mostly lower for the week.
- US and European bond yields were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved lower for the week.
- Gold futures rallied for the week, closing in on the record high.
- Oil futures prices snake to the lower end of a multi-month range.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: It is a packed week for central bank events, with key highlights including the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision, and Minutes, and the European Central Bank’s Policy Statement, Rate Decision, and Press Conference, all on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan’s Policy Statement, Rate Decision, and Press Conference on Friday.
Macro Data Watch: It is also a busy week for economic data, with the US Employment Report and Retail Sales on Tuesday and US CPI on Thursday as the main highlights. Other notable releases include the Global Flash PMI on Tuesday, CPI updates from Canada, the UK, and the EU, as well as Retail Sales figures from China, the UK, and Canada.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 12/15/2025 | Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales; EU Industrial Production; Canadian CPI |
| 12/16/2025 | Global Flash PMI; UK Employment Report; US Employment Report and Retail Sales |
| 12/17/2025 | Japanese Trade Report; UK CPI, PPI and RPI; EU CPI |
| 12/18/2025 | BoE Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Minutes; ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference; US CPI and Initial Jobless Claims |
| 12/19/2025 | Japanese CPI; UK Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales; BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference; German Consumer Confidence and PPI; Canadian Retail Sales; EU Consumer Confidence; US Existing Home Sales Change and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
