Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- After touching fresh records midweek, major U.S. indexes slipped modestly as tariff threats reignited trade worries, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq easing slightly and small-cap stocks underperforming.
- The U.S. reignited global trade tensions with sweeping new tariffs on over 20 countries and a record 50% copper import duty, stoking inflation risks, straining diplomatic ties, and adding uncertainty for markets and policymakers alike.
- The Fed’s June minutes revealed a split among policymakers, with some favoring rate cuts soon due to slowing growth while others urged caution amid persistent inflation and tariff uncertainties.
- A busy week awaits investors as Tuesday’s June CPI report, fresh retail sales data, and a flurry of earnings from major banks, tech giants, and consumer brands promise to shape expectations for interest rates and market direction.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were slightly lower, with US indices near records.
- US and European bond yields edged higher on the week.
- The US Dollar Index moved higher, rebounding from an early July multi-year low.
- Gold futures rallied, but still in a wider range.
- Oil futures prices rallied.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central bank activity is light this week, the main focus will be the speeches from ECB and Fed members.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US CPI on Tuesday. Some other releases of note are the Chinese GDP on Monday, US PPI on Wednesday, US Retail Sales on Thursday and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
Earnings Watch: US Q2 season kicks off this week with major banks, tech giants, and consumer brands releasing their earnings.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 07/14/2025 | Chinese Trade Report; UK Retail Sales |
| 07/15/2025 | Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales; EU Industrial Production; US and Canadian CPI |
| 07/16/2025 | UK CPI and RPI; US PPI and Industrial Production |
| 07/17/2025 | Japanese Trade Report; UK and Australian Employment Reports; EU CPI; US Retail Sales |
| 07/18/2025 | Japanese CPI; German PPI; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
| Date | Major Earnings Data |
| 07/14/2025 | Nothing of note |
| 07/15/2025 | JPMorgan; Wells Fargo & Co: BlackRock; Citigroup |
| 07/16/2025 | J&J; Bank of America; ASML ADR; Morgan Stanley; Goldman Sachs; Progressive |
| 07/17/2025 | Netflix; GE Aerospace; Abbott Labs; PepsiCo; Taiwan Semiconductor |
| 07/18/2025 | American Express; Charles Schwab |
