USDCAD weakness in intermediate-term bull trend

Intermediate
  • Mixed Canadian economic data on Wednesday alongside an upbeat outlook for H2 2019 from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz were taken as positives for the Canadian Dollar.
  • Furthermore, this week has seen a broad, corrective weakening for the US Dollar against most major currencies, possibly driven by month-end moves but also easing concerns of a global slowdown.
  • These factors have encouraged a notable USDCAD selloff over the past 24 hours, and although the intermediate-term outlook stays bullish (for now), the short-term risks is lower.

USDCAD risks shift lower

A selloff through our 1.3431 and 1.3396 supports, to reject upside forces from the latter April push up through resistances at 1.3469/74/88, 1.3446/49 and 1.3396/1.3403, to switch risks lower for Wednesday.

The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3371; break here aims for 1.3371 and maybe towards 1.3270.
  • But above 1.3419 opens risk up to 1.3480.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3246 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3110 is needed for a bear theme.

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

USDCAD Chart 2019-05-01

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