- USDJPY remains very much defined by an intermediate-term, broader range (we see as 114.21 and 112.20).
- But the recent “risk off” move across global capital markets, in reaction to fears of a global slowdown, have seen the US Dollar preferred as a safe haven currency, rallying against most major currencies and even versus the Japanese Yen.
- This leaves a skewed risk for a USDJPY intermediate-term bullish breakout above 114.21 and 114.55.
USDJPY upside bias, despite setback
An inside pattern setback Friday to hold 113.11 and 112.98 supports, to sustain upside forces from the mid-month push above 113.24 and 113.52 resistances and rebound from above 112.57 support (off of 112.98), keeping the bias higher for Monday
We see an intermediate-term range theme, defined by 114.21 and 112.20, BUT with growing threat for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 114.21.
- We see an upside bias for 113.71 and 113.85; break here aims for key 114.04 and critical 114.21.
- But below 113.11 and 112.98 opens risk down to 112.57, maybe towards 112.21/20.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 114.21 and 112.20.
- Upside Risks: Above 114.21 sets a bull trend to aim for 114.55/73, 115.50/63, 118.65 and 120.00.
- Downside Risks: Below 112.20 sees a bear trend to target 111.35, 110.36 and 109.74.
4 Hour USDJPY Chart