Euro bullish threat (EURUSD forecast)

  • After a move to higher yields earlier in August, US yields are now moving back towards the record lows, resuming broader US Dollar weakness.
  • Global stock indices remain in “risk on” mode, which also keeps USD weak, as throughout the pandemic the US Dollar has traded very much as a safe haven currency.
  • Plus, the US is still struggling with significant rises in COVID-19 cases.
  • This leaves the skewed risk for EURUSD gains today and for August.

EURUSD day trade outlook: Upside bias

A prod higher on Monday and overnight into Tuesday above 1.1864 to 1.1897, to build on Friday’s firm advance and last week’s push up through 1.1846/50 resistances and the rebound from above our notable 1.1697/94 support area, to keep the risk higher into Tuesday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1897 and the cycle high at 1.1916; a break here aims towards 1.1952 and key 1.1996/1.2000 resistances.
  • But below 1.1809 aims for 1.1754, which we would look to try to hold again; below here then opens risk down to the key 1.1697/94 support area.

EURUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early June rally above 1.1147 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend for 1.1996/1.2000 and 1.2414
  • What changes this: Below the 1.1697/94 support area switches the intermediate-term bull trend straight to bearish.

6 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd forecast

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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