Euro looks very vulnerable again (EURUSD Forecast)


EURUSD day trade outlook: A roll back lower, still negative

Day trade update and view

A Thursday probe lower below 1.1231 to reinforce Wednesday’s roll back lower, to reject the Tuesday’s rebound that was capped by the solid 1.1353/79 resistance barriers.

Whilst below 1.1281/85 we see negative pressures from the mid-June push below the 1.1211 swing low and 1.1193/82 support area for a topping pattern, to keep the risk lower into Friday. 

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1189; a break here quickly opens risks towards 1.1166 and 1.1153, maybe then towards 1.1113/00.
  • But above 1.1281/85 aims for 1.1349/53 and 1.1379, maybe back towards the cycle high at 1.1422.

EURUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early June rally above 1.1147 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend for 1.1367 and 1.1496
  • What changes this: Below 1.1166 sets intermediate-term neutral theme, and only below 1.0869 a bear trend.

6 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

  1. I can see what you are saying but I don’t know if I agree, if you draw a trend line from the 1.1422 that connects the 1.1353 and supports the 1.1189 and another one from the 1.0773 that connects the 1.1166 and the 1.1189, I think this will provide you with new data that might confirm the end of the down rally and the begin of an upward leg.. that is going to be 1.18 or even 1.19.. according to first leg size.

    1. I would agree that the mini down counter trend line off of the 1.1422 peak has been broken, but we then failed from just below the important Dow Theory swing high at 1.1353, from 1.1349.
      This now gives us TWO successive lower lows and lower highs since mid-June, a sustained small down trend from a Dow Theory perspective.

      With regard to the up trend line you mention off of the 1.0733 though 1.1166, I would not redraw the trend line through this second point, as a new cycle high has not been produced after moving to this 1.1166 swing low.
      The true up trend line from my perspective is the dashed one on my chart, which has long been reversed.

      Of course, you are free to have your opinion, that it what makes a market, and as you see in the commentary here, I actually have an intermediate term bullish outlook. However, this would be surrendered should 1.1166 be violated (which I anticipate to happen early this week coming, possibly Monday).

      Have a GREAT trading day the_Second Point of …

      1. Fx Explained now we have more info, Euro daily candle is a doji. Don’t know what that means but surely Monday volatility is coming, also the net positions of long on Euro are now at 190K shorts only 72K positions (Non-Commercial] .. I didn’t exactly mean 1.0773 .. I wanted you to draw the line underneath the 1.1168 because it’s seems like it is the new baby trend still in formation I just said 1.0773 so you can get it’s angle. Thanks for the reply, love the videos, most importantly up or down, you are helping people make some money, that is Awesome 👍🏻👍🏻

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