- A solid consolidation tone since midweek, but November strength seen across the major “commodity” or “risk” currencies (the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian Dollars) remains intact.
- The “risk on” price action is still being assisted by:
- Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hopes
- Extension of the Biden bounce
- Mixed, but marginally positive economic data compared with consensus
- Here we look at the NZDUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD charts and Forex forecasts.
NZDUSD day trade outlook: Another new multi-year high
Again, a high-level consolidation Thursday above .6956 support to build on Wednesday’s surge above .7005 and overnight now to yet another new cycle peak, after the strong, latter November rally above key resistances at .6968/69/70 and .7000, sustaining upside forces from the whole November advance, to keep the bias higher Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for .7048 and .7077 and maybe towards .7099/7101.
- But below .6956 aims for .6926 and opens risk down to .6895.
NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook
The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .7395/7400.
- What changes this? Below .6807/6792 sets the intermediate-term bull trend to neutral, below .6587 to an intermediate-term bear trend.
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD day trade outlook: Resilient consolidation, upside risks
A high-level consolidation Thursday, holding above .7308 initial support, to reinforce the latter November strong advance above the resistances at .7334/40/45, plus upside forces from the earlier November surge up to .7340, to keep risks higher for Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for .7382; a break here aims for the cycle high at .7413, maybe. 7456.
- But below .7308 targets .7251, which we would look to try to hold. Below sees .7218.
AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above the key .7244 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to bullish.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for .7413 and .7677.
- What changes this? Below .7218 sees the intermediate-term bull trend switch to neutral and below .7046 to a bear trend.
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart
USDCAD day trade outlook: Bear bias
A low-level consolidation on Thursday having held exactly at the top of our 1.2982/72 support area, after the latter November push below 1.3026/23 supports sustained bear forces from the significant, early November sell-off through key 1.2990 low and 1.2948 supports (to a multi-year low at 1.2924), to keep the risk lower for Friday.
Day trade setup
We see a downside bias for 1.2982/72 and 1.2924; a break here maybe aims for 1.2888.
But above 1.3029/32 targets 1.3091 and quickly aims for 1.3124.
USDCAD intermediate-term outlook
The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2799 and 1.2550.
- What changes this? Above 1.3173 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.
8 Hour USDCAD Chart
