USDJPY forecast higher, following stocks in “risk on” mode

Intermediate
  • A risk on theme again this week with further positive soundings from the US-China phase one trade deal, as Trump states a deal is close (again).
  • This has pushed global equity markets still higher, with the US the stock market benchmark averages (the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq) all hitting new all-time peaks on Tuesday.
  • In the Forex space this has seen a generally solid US Dollar, but also sees a weakening of the Japanese Yen, being sold its safe haven status not required in the risk on environment.
  • The USDJPY Forex rate has tracked higher this week alongside global share markets, with the USDJPY forecast still higher.

USDJPY: Day trade outlook – Bull tone

A firm advance Tuesday through our 109.07/15 resistance area (as flagged), to build on Monday’s push above 108.84 and last Thursday’s dip and a firm rebound from above the swing low at 108.22 (from 108.25), to keep the bias back higher into Wednesday.

  • We see an upside bias for 109.21/30; break here aims for 109.49 and 109.60/62.
  • But below 108.70 quickly opens risk down to 108.45, maybe the 108.25/22/18 area.

USDJPY: Intermediate-term outlook

A mid-October surge through the key 108.45/48 peaks signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.

Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 110.00. Higher targets would be 110.67 and 112.04

What changes this? Below 107.87 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 106.47 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

USDJPY chart

Steve Miley

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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