Daily Digest:
w/c 4 March 2024: US stock averages higher again to end the week, prodding at record levels; upcoming week's focus on the Fed's Powell testimony before Congress and the US Employment report

Forex Videos

In this section we have gathered all forex forecasts and market analyses that contain a video. If you like to listen to a video explaining the analysis based on a chart pattern, instead of a long text where you have to read the analysis, you have come to the right place. The headings below should give you a pretty good picture on what the respective video is about. If you’re looking for analyses of specific currency pairs, please visit our forex rates section, where you can see the latest analyses and videos for the respective currency pairs. Most analyses in the videos below are based on technical analysis primarily looking at support and resistance levels, and we would greatly appreciate any feedback from you as a reader here, contact us.

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Intermediate

Fear Index Special

Shaun Downey, expert technical analyst, looks at what the charts are telling him about the current fears gripping financial markets. Remember Shaun’s great call for Gold back at the end of January. Gold and Silver trends remain bullish!

Intermediate

US Dollar Rallies

US Dollar Index Gains (DXY forecast) EuroYen breaks up (EURJPY forecast) Aussie reaches major downside target (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Commodities analysis 8 February

Gold bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart & then the weekly chart suggested the 3 month rally in Gold just ended. Silver huge bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart is a sell signal as we take out all the candles for the 7 weeks last week. WTI Crude April unexpectedly recovered all of … Continued

Intermediate

Forex Forecast 6 February

AUDUSD rejected the 100 week & the 500 day moving averages at 7160/80 & collapsed through support at 7060/50 on Friday for a sell signal targeting 6990/80 & 6930/20. A low for the day exactly here in fact. This is key 23.6% Fibonacci & 3 month trend line support at 6930/10. Longs need stops below … Continued

Beginner

Mixed Earnings, But Strong Macro Data Sends Stocks Higher Ahead of MASSIVE week for Markets

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 30/01/23 German GDP; EU Consumer Confidence 31/01/23 China PMI; German Retail Sales; EU GDP; German CPI; US Consumer Confidence 01/02/23 EU CPI; global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; FOMC interest rate decision  02/02/23 BoE interest rate decision; … Continued

Intermediate

Forex Forecasts 27/1/2023

AUDUSD we will stick with buying at support until it looks like we have a sell signal. Good support at 7065/60 (although we did not reach here yesterday). Longs need stops below 7045. Target is 7115/20 then 7160/65. A break below 7045 however risks a slide to to strong support at 7010/00. Longs need stops … Continued

Intermediate

Stock markets to rise or fall in February?

Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage. FTSE 100 March holding a 3 day range from 7710 up to 7780. Remember … Continued

Intermediate

Pound on a Rollercoaster!

Euro-Pound hits upside target (EURGBP forecast) Cable rebound still caped by resistance (GBPUSD forecast) Minor supports form for commodity currencies, but still vulnerable (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

Intermediate

US Dollar Stays Strong as Pound Collapses

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro & Pound break down (EURUSD & GBPUSD forecasts)  Dollar-Yen posts negative (USDJPY forecast)  Euro-Pound and Dollar-CAD continue uptrends (EURGBP & USDCAD forecasts) 

Intermediate

Hot US CPI Sets “Risk Off” Theme; Fed in Focus in Busy Week for CBs

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The dominant event last week was the far higher than expected release for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Headline CPI rose 8.3% YoY ended August against expectations of an 8.1% rise. Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) leapt to its highest level since March at 6.3%, higher … Continued

Intermediate

Pound Under Bear Pressures

Euro-Pound breaks to the upside  (EURGBP forecast) Cable teeters over the edge (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks higher (USDCAD forecast)

Intermediate

A Cross Asset Class Shift To “Risk On”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Easing inflation fears seemed to be at work last week, possibly assisted by a midweek decline in oil prices to multi-month lows. Plus, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated that price increases were moderating in 9 of its 12 districts. Fed speakers Brainard and Mester also delivered comments that seemed to be more … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD Holds Final Major Support

Pound holds critical support (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar Index retreats and is back in sideways  (DXY forecast) EuroYen reaches major upside target  (EURJPY forecast)

Intermediate

Restrained “Risk on” Theme Continues

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Monthly Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America showed that funds’ cash holdings are at their highest levels since 9/11, and equity exposure at the lowest levels since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and recession. This can be viewed as a contrary indicator, meaning that there is plenty of cash to … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar Retreats

US Dollar Index sets back (DXY forecast)  US DollarYen false break out higher (USDJPY forecast)  Major support lies below on EuroYen (EURJPY forecast)

Beginner

Stocks Rebound, Despite “Hot” US CPI

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big data print came from US CPI on Wednesday with the headline number moving to 9.1% YoY, up from the 8.6% print in May and higher than consensus. There is now a growing anticipation from short-term interest rate markets that the Fed could raise rates by 1.00% at their meeting on … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar remains King!

US Dollar Index hits major target (DXY forecast) Euro also reaches major level (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)

Intermediate

US Dollar Surges Again

US Dollar Index Extends Bull Trend (DXY forecast) Euro Continues its Bear Trend (EURUSD forecast)

Intermediate

US Dollar Attacks Highs

The US Dollar Index Approaches Multi-Year Peak (DXY forecast) Aussie & Kiwi Dollars Break Down ( AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts ) Euro Vulnerable Too (EURUSD forecast) Pound Creates Major Support (GBPUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Stock averages base with glimmers of inflation peaking and slowdown signs

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Moderating inflation pressures and falling growth data helped global stock indices secures gains and technical bases last week. Global S&P Flash PMI on Thursday were not only lower than for May, but also below expectations in many instances, with the US services data hitting its lowest level since January. In addition, long … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages consolidate bases, “risk on” theme intact

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued

Intermediate

Strong stock index rebounds for technical “bases”, “risk on”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued

Intermediate

US inflation still running hot, BUT hints at stock averages basing

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI headline data year over year rose 8.3%, falling from March’s pace but not as much as expected, with consensus around 8.1%. Jerome Powell again stated that a hike of 0.75% was not something being actively considered, but was still a possibility. Possible easing of pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai, China brought … Continued

Intermediate

Disappointing tech earnings leave stocks vulnerable, after erratic April end

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers. The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline … Continued

Intermediate

The US Dollar is King

Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) But US Dollar Index stops at a major upside resistance (DXY forecast) Kiwi breaks final support (NZDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Higher yield pressure sees value stocks outperform growth counterparts

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US headline CPI data leapt by 1.2% in March, with the year-over-year rise at 8.5%, above consensus expectations to a four-decade high. More hawkish comments from Charles Evans of the Fed (historically a dove) regarding accelerated rate hikes echoed the comments the prior week from another dove, Lael Brainard. The European Central … Continued

Intermediate

Even more hawkish Fed sends bonds and stock averages lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Hawkish comments from Lael Brainard of the Fed (usually more of a dove) regarding rate hikes and balance sheet normalization saw Bonds yields surge last Tuesday, with growth/ tech stocks leading the US stock averages lower. This was affirmed by Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, which reinforced a more hawkish threat from the … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar strength!

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  But Euro-Dollar does not break down (EURUSD forecast)  Blow off tops on Aussie and Kiwi  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) 

Intermediate

Stocks surge as Bonds plunge

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for global risky assets (notably stocks) since mid-March. This has also been assisted by hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks … Continued