Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers.
- The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline number missed estimates.
- Pandemic lockdowns in China are weighing on the country’s growth and intensifying global supply chain and inflation worries.
Global financial market developments
- Growth/ tech stocks lead US stock averages lower again, in most instances to new 2022 lows.
- Global stock averages were also lower last week, although European and UK indices are outperforming their US counterparts.
- US and global bonds rebounded from recent high yields, but setback again into month-end.
- The US Dollar surged further again across the board, with the Japanese Yen moving to a multi-decade low against the greenback.
- Gold sold off further (then bounced), staying more negative.
- Oil moved back higher, reinforcing a range environment.
- Copper plunged still lower for a still ore negative tone.
Key this week
- Geopolitical focus:
- Monday 2nd May is a UK holiday, markets are closed
- There is an OPEC+ Meeting on Thursday 5th Ma
- Still closely monitoring the war in Ukraine
- Central Bank Watch: A busy week for Central Banks, we get the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Tuesday and the same from the FOMC on Wednesday and from the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday.
- Macroeconomic data: A big week too for data with the standout releases this week the global S&P & US Manufacturing PMI on Monday and the same data for Services on Tuesday, then the US Employment report on Friday.
|Date||Key Macroeconomic Events|
|02/05/22||UK holiday, markets closed; German Retail Sales; global S&P Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI|
|03/05/22||RBA interest rate decision, statement and press conference; S&P UK Manufacturing PMI; German Unemployment; ECB’s Lagarde speaks|
|04/05/22||New Zealand Employment report; global S&P Services and Composite PMI; US ISM Services PMI; FOMC interest rate decision, statement and press conference|
|05/05/22||OPEC+ Meeting; S&P UK Services PMI; BoE interest rate decision, statement and press conference|
|06/05/22||US Employment report; Canadian Employment report|