Daily Digest:
w/c 4 March 2024: US stock averages higher again to end the week, prodding at record levels; upcoming week's focus on the Fed's Powell testimony before Congress and the US Employment report

Earnings Releases and Macro Data Preview – January 16th

Intermediate

Earnings Releases

Earnings releases from investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are vital for financial markets, serving as key indicators of the financial industry’s health, risk management, and overall economic conditions. These reports influence market sentiment, guide investment decisions, and provide insights into the banks’ adaptability to changing economic environments.

There were multiple financial intermediaries that released their earnings last week. For more detail on this data that kick off the US Q4 earning season check out our article here.

Morgan Stanley Earnings

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has a market capitalization of $147.23 billion and is anticipated to release its earnings data for the final quarter of 2023 tomorrow, Tuesday 16th January 2024. Forecasts expect an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.08, and an expected revenue of $12.79 billion. Notably, Morgan Stanley has consistently exceeded earnings estimates, showcasing an average surprise of 8.72% over the past two quarters. In the last reported quarter, the bank outperformed expectations with earnings of $1.38 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.27 per share by 8.66%. This trend underscores the bank’s strong financial performance and its potential impact on market dynamics.

Goldman Sachs Earnings

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs, with a market capitalization of $129.73 billion, will release its earnings tomorrow, with a forecasted earnings per share (EPS) of 3.8, and an expected revenue of $10.83 billion. In the previous quarter, the actual EPS surpassed expectations, reaching 5.47 compared to the forecasted 5.32. These metrics offer insights into the bank’s financial performance, impacting investor sentiment and market dynamics.

German CPI

CPI releases are crucial to financial markets as they measure changes in the cost of goods and services, providing insights into inflation, as previously touched upon. Investors closely monitor CPI data, as it influences economic decisions, interest rates, and overall market conditions. Accurate interpretation of CPI helps inform investors and policymakers, contributing to market stability and economic forecasting.

Germany will release their CPI data at 7:00 GMT on Tuesday 16th January 2024 , with consensus expectations coming in at 3.7% year on year and 0.1% month on month. This would be up from last month’s 3.2%  and -0.4%, and is expected to remain consistent with January 4th CPI data that also came in at 3.7%. Data from bloomberg.

UK Employment Report

The UK Employment Report holds significance for financial markets as it provides key insights into the health of the labour market. Data such as employment levels, wage growth, and unemployment rates influence market sentiment, economic policies, and investment decisions. Investors closely analyse the report to gauge the overall economic health, potential inflationary pressures, and the likelihood of central bank interventions. The information derived from the UK Employment Report assists in forming expectations about future economic trends, guiding financial strategies and market responses.

The highly anticipated UK Employment Report is scheduled for release at 7:00 GMT Tuesday 16th January 2024. Analysts forecast a decline in the Average Earnings ex Bonus for November to 6.6%, compared to the previous month’s 7.3%. Additionally, the Average Earnings Index +Bonus is expected to decrease to 6.8%, following the prior month’s 7.2%. The Claimant Count Change, a crucial indicator, is projected to rise to 18.1K in December, up from the previous month’s 16.0K. Lastly, the Unemployment Rate for November is forecasted at 4.3%, compared to the previous month’s 4.2%. These key metrics provide valuable insights into the UK labour market’s health and can significantly influence financial markets. Data from bloomberg.

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

Comments on this analysis

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *