- Global equity averages have continued their upside path through June, despite the fact that the US-Sino Trade War remains in place, BUT a more dovish tone from even hawkish Federal Reserve Speakers has allowed for strong recoveries in June.
- This recovery theme has been assisted by recent progress in US-Mexico trade talks, avoiding tariffs by the US.
- Today we spotlight the major European and UK benchmark equity indices, the FTSE 100 and DAX, which are signalling a more positive (though not outright bullish) outlook on into June.
FTSE 100 intermediate-term shift to a range and upside risks
We have stressed in recent reports to our clients that “ the early June push through 7095 set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is growing for a shift back to neutral above 7360.5, maybe to bullish above 7474” and the push this morning already below the lower level sets an intermediate-term range we see as 7474 to 7069, BUT with risks growing for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 7474.
Furthermore, this sets risks higher Monday.
- We see an upside bias for 7380/88; break here aims for 7412.5, maybe 7440/43, even key 7474.
- But below 7324 opens risk down to 7293, possibly 7261.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 7474 to 7069.
- Upside Risks: Above 7474 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 7500 and 7625.5.
- Downside Risks: Below 7069 sees an intermediate-term bear trend to target 6943 and maybe 6587.
DAX poised for an intermediate-term shift to a range above 12123.5
A strong rally Friday and higher again this morning through 12077 resistance to another new recovery high and poised just below the key 12123.5 level, sustaining upside forces from the early June recovery from a new bear trend low at 11595.5, to keep the bias back higher Monday.
The late May plunge below 11837.5 set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is intensifying for a shift back to neutral above 12123.5, maybe to bullish above 12318.5.
- We see an upside bias through key 12123.5; break here aims for 12210.5 and 12246 maybe next key 12318.5.
- But below 12027/020 opens risk down to 11964 and possibly 11895/883.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 11285.
- Lower targets would be 11000/10900 and 10701.5.
- What Changes This? Above 12123.5 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 12318.5 is needed for a bull theme.
4 Hour Chart