- A surge higher for the FTSE 100 over the past 48 hours has seen a break above a key October peak for a more positive technical outlook (see below for full technical analysis details).
- This has been assisted by the corrective weakness in the Pound since Tuesday, on the back of the government suspending the passage of the current Brexit deal, after it lost control of the bill’s timetable.
- The FTSE 100 often benefits from GBP weakness, as a significant number of the larger capitalisation FTSE 100 stocks are companies that earn revenues overseas, so a weaker Pound is a benefit.
- Nevertheless, with Sterling stabilising over the past 24 hours, the FTSE 100 enjoyed gains seen across global equity markets as US earnings continue to be positive and after a ceasefire in Northern Syria.
FTSE 100: Intermediate-term bull shift
We have stressed in recent reports to our clients that “we see an intermediate-term bearish theme BUT see risks for a shift to bullish above 7233.5” and the probe above here on Wednesday switches the intermediate-term view to bullish.
Furthermore, the Wednesday advance above key 7233.5 also saw a bull break from the one-week, Symmetrical Triangle consolidation pattern, which has built on upside pressures from the earlier, strong October advance, to keep the bias higher Thursday
- We see an upside bias for 7244 and 7266; break here aims for 7297 and maybe 7333.
- But below 7211/10 opens risk down to 7162.5, maybe 7122.5.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 7406.
- Higher targets would be 7506.5 and 7629.
- What Changes This? Below 7086 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 6970.5 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.
Daily FTSE 100 Future Chart