GBP/USD – The Pound erratic, but vulnerable into another key Brexit week

Intermediate
  • The Pound has been under negative pressures again in early April, with little progress made politically on the Brexit negotiations within the UK since the 29th March deadline was extended.
  • Another new deadline looms this week, Friday April 10th, with strong rhetoric from within the EU seeing risks of a “no deal” Brexit increase again, which has assisted in pushing Sterling lower.
  • US Dollar resilience across many currencies has added to the negative tone for the GBPUSD FX rate, which we focus on here.

GBPUSD risks stay lower; bear threat to key 1.2947

A Friday selloff as expected through 1.3059 and 1.3012 supports, with a modest rebound effort failing back from just below our 1.3130 resistance (from 1.3122), to reinforce Thursday’s plunge, keeping risks lower for Monday.

The aggressive, mid-March advance through the late February peak at 1.3350 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2985 and 1.2976; break here aims for key 1.2947, maybe 1.2890.
  • But above 1.3082 opens risk up to 1.3122/20, maybe towards 1.3196.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3608 and 1.4000
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2947 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD chart

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