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Latest GBP USD Analysis and Forecast

Sell off reinforces intermediate-term bear shift, bias stays lower

Day trade update and view

A Thursday sell off through 1.3436/30 and 1.3380 supports to 1.3357, to reinforce bear pressures from Wednesday's setback from our 1.3524/35 resistance area from Monday's plunge through the key 1.3532/27 support area for an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend, keeping risks lower for Friday. 

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3357 and 1.3301; a break here maybe aims for 1.3240.
  • But above 1.3468 opens risk up to 1.3524/35 and possibly 1.3565/76. 

Intermediate-term outlook

The latter January push below the key 1.3532/2 support area signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.3173/71/60, 1.3000 and 1.2675.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3662 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

GBP USD Calendar

28/01/22 German GDP; US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)

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Please join the GBP USD discussion

    1. The Pound (GBP) is falling against most currencies today due to the release of the UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production data. Practically all elements of the is report were negative, with the quarterly contraction in GDP the first since 2012 indicating a weakening economy.
      This layers on top of ongoing fears about a “No Deal” Brexit and the threat that the Bank of England may need to cut interest rates. All of these factors are negative for the currency, hence the move lower for GBPUSD and GBPJPY, plus the move higher for EURGBP.
      Also, from a technical analysis perspective, GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY are moving to multi-year extremes, which sends a negative signal for GBP.
      Hope this helps, please revert with any further questions.

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BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
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