GBP USD

GBPUSD Currency pair flag

Latest GBP USD Analysis and Forecast

US Dollar strength on higher relative yields; Pound weakening with vaccine out performance strength fading

  • The US Dollar rebounded after immediate weakness after the 7th March Fed Meeting
  • This strength resumed through March, but has seen more of a consolidation theme from late March into April 
  • This US Dollar strength has been assisted by US Treasuries move to higher yields, alongside US yield spread widening versus many other government bonds
  • The Pound is weakening against Major currencies (e.g. the Euro), with the relative, positive benefits from the impressive UK vaccine rollout priced in

Rebound stall, but still a negative bias 

Day trade update and view

A Monday rebound and a stall, after a prod below the March cycle low at 1.3670, but a stall from below 1.3794, thereby sustaining bear forces from the early April plunge lower from new impulse resistance at 1.3838 through various supports, plus from the significant, latter March reversal below the the up trend lines from March and November 2020, to leave the bias lower for Tuesday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3706/00; a break here aims for 1.3670/69, maybe 1.3632.
  • But above 1.3794 quickly aims for 1.3838, which we would look to cap. Above possibly opens risk up towards 1.3919.

Intermediate-term outlook

The early March push below 1.3829 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.3566, 1.3138/34 and 1.3000.
  • What changes this? Above the strong 1.4001/26 resistance area shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

GBP USD Calendar

13/04/21 Chinese trade data; UK GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production; German ZEW Survey; US CPI

14/04/21 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement

15/04/21 Australian Employment report; German CPI; US Retail Sales

16/04/21 Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production; EU CPI

View Full Calendar

Please join the GBP USD discussion


    1. The Pound (GBP) is falling against most currencies today due to the release of the UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production data. Practically all elements of the is report were negative, with the quarterly contraction in GDP the first since 2012 indicating a weakening economy.
      This layers on top of ongoing fears about a “No Deal” Brexit and the threat that the Bank of England may need to cut interest rates. All of these factors are negative for the currency, hence the move lower for GBPUSD and GBPJPY, plus the move higher for EURGBP.
      Also, from a technical analysis perspective, GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY are moving to multi-year extremes, which sends a negative signal for GBP.
      Hope this helps, please revert with any further questions.

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