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Latest GBP USD Analysis

Brexit deal hopes sees GBPUSD break 1.30

  • The Pound has stayed strong on global Forex markets, despite disappointment at the weekend, with the so called “Super Saturday” not so “Super” as the Government failed to progress its new Brexit deal with the EU.
  • However, the new Brexit deal just seems on course to be pushed through Parliament before the 31st October deadline, whilst the threat of a no deal having been eased as the Government has sent a letter to the EU asking for an extension beyond the end of October.
  • In addition, the US Dollar stays weakened, partially due to global financial markets continuing to express a “risk on” theme, with positive soundings on US-Sino trade talks, plus the Brexit deal progress, with equity markets higher.
  • The weaker Dollar has reflected weakness both due to its safe haven role with the positive global backdrop, alongside the expectations of another 2019 rate cut from the Fed, with US data deteriorating recently.
  • The combination of these factors has pushed GBPUSD up through key 1.3000.

GBPUSD: Bull trend extension

A Monday rebound to overcome the 1.2990/3000 holding and rebounding from just above our 1.2869 support (from 1.2871), to resume upside forces from last Thursday’s erratic session that saw a dip and rebound from new 1.2756 support, to keep risks higher for Tuesday.

The impulsive advance through 1.2413 saw us shift our intermediate-term view to bullish.

For Today:                                              

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3013; break here aims for 1.3047 and 1.3081 and maybe even 1.3131.
  • But below 1.2911 opens risk down to 1.2871/69, maybe towards 1.2814 and 1.2756.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.2784.

  • Higher targets would be 11.3000 and 1.3176.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2193 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight back to a bear theme.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart


Please join the GBP USD discussion

    1. The Pound (GBP) is falling against most currencies today due to the release of the UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production data. Practically all elements of the is report were negative, with the quarterly contraction in GDP the first since 2012 indicating a weakening economy.
      This layers on top of ongoing fears about a “No Deal” Brexit and the threat that the Bank of England may need to cut interest rates. All of these factors are negative for the currency, hence the move lower for GBPUSD and GBPJPY, plus the move higher for EURGBP.
      Also, from a technical analysis perspective, GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY are moving to multi-year extremes, which sends a negative signal for GBP.
      Hope this helps, please revert with any further questions.

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