GBPUSD Currency pair flag

Latest GBP USD Analysis and Forecast

Further rally, clinging to bear forces (just) 

Day trade update and view

A Wednesday dip and rebound after the strong Monday-Tuesday rally above the down trend line from mid-June and 1.3862 resistance, BUT whilst still JUST capped by the key 1.3910 swing resistance we cling onto negative forces from the mid-July plunge to 1.3571, just leaving the threat lower for Thursday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3767 and 1.3737; a break here maybe aims for 1.3690.
  • But above key 1.3910 opens risk up towards 1.3939, then possibly towards 1.4001.

Intermediate-term outlook

The mid-June plunge below key 1.4005 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.3134 and maybe towards 1.2853.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3910 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

Please join the GBP USD discussion

    1. The Pound (GBP) is falling against most currencies today due to the release of the UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production data. Practically all elements of the is report were negative, with the quarterly contraction in GDP the first since 2012 indicating a weakening economy.
      This layers on top of ongoing fears about a “No Deal” Brexit and the threat that the Bank of England may need to cut interest rates. All of these factors are negative for the currency, hence the move lower for GBPUSD and GBPJPY, plus the move higher for EURGBP.
      Also, from a technical analysis perspective, GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY are moving to multi-year extremes, which sends a negative signal for GBP.
      Hope this helps, please revert with any further questions.

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