GBPUSD focus into a key general election

Intermediate
  • The focus Wednesday was on the Federal Reserve in their last FOMC Meeting of 2019. There was no change in interest rates as anticipated, through the Fed maintained their dovish stance, indicating that rates would likely remain on hold through 2020.
  • Stock averages in the US and globally cheered this outcome, probing slightly higher.
  • However, markets remain somewhat cautious, given two looming events.
  • First, in the UK today, Thursday 12th December it is election day and despite some market concerns about a narrowing in the possible lead that the Conservative party has, the Pound made another new multi month high against the US Dollar, GBPUSD (though this was partially due to the more dovish Fed tone, as above).
  • The second big focus is on a possible decision from President Trump to roll back the December 15th deadline for further tariff increases from the US on China.

GBPUSD day trade outlook

A Wednesday rebound, bouncing from above 1.3107/00 supports to reject Tuesday’s intraday setback and reinforce the recent spike higher with a prod back above 1.3215 to 1.3228, to retain upside pressures from last week’s push up through the key cycle peak at 1.3013 (to signal an intermediate-term bull shift), to keep the bias higher for Thursday.

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3228; break here aims for 1.3263 and maybe 1.3299.
  • But below 1.3107/00 opens risk down towards 1.3036.

GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook

An early December surge through the key 1.3013 peak signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.

Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3397, 1.3473 and 1.3618.

What changes this? Below 1.2879 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 1.2768 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

4 Hour GBPUSD Forex Chart

GBPUSD chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Latest Related News

Corrective moves for stocks and the US Dollar

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread globally, with the current epicentre still in Europe, but quickly shifting to the US. The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson and Heath Secretary Matt Hancock have both tested positive for coronavirus (though symptoms are understood to be mild).The surge in cases in New York and the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut has… Continued

Dollar reverses, breaks key support (DXY)

Euro breaks up (EURUSD)Pound hits major resistance (GBPUSD)Dollar-Yen refuses to rise with equities (USDJPY) Continued

GBPUSD bounce as US Dollar strength recedes

The aggressive US Dollar strength of the past 1-2 weeks has begun to recede this week.This has been as equity averages have stabilised globally and begun to rebound, alongside commodity prices, whilst credit concerns have been eased by global central bank actions.This has seen a more negative, correction, a weakening of the US Dollar across most major currencies (barring the Japanese Yen).Here we focus on… Continued

US Dollar surges in flight to quality; GBPUSD hits multi-decade low

The COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread, with a global surge in cases and the inevitable fatalities.The still more aggressive spread of the virus in the UK, across European nations and also throughout the USA has seen multiple countries go into some form of lockdown, with restrictions on public movement and work from home rules enforced. Panic buying has broadened globally, reflecting fears amongst the general… Continued

US Dollar bullish breaks

Dollar breaks up and forms short term exhaustion pattern (DXY)Similar exhaustion shows on the Pound along with the Aussie (GBPUSD and AUDUSD)Euro-Pound signals a fresh exhaustion and powerful reversal pattern (EURGBP) Continued

Forex Brokers in your location