- The focus Wednesday was on the Federal Reserve in their last FOMC Meeting of 2019. There was no change in interest rates as anticipated, through the Fed maintained their dovish stance, indicating that rates would likely remain on hold through 2020.
- Stock averages in the US and globally cheered this outcome, probing slightly higher.
- However, markets remain somewhat cautious, given two looming events.
- First, in the UK today, Thursday 12th December it is election day and despite some market concerns about a narrowing in the possible lead that the Conservative party has, the Pound made another new multi month high against the US Dollar, GBPUSD (though this was partially due to the more dovish Fed tone, as above).
- The second big focus is on a possible decision from President Trump to roll back the December 15th deadline for further tariff increases from the US on China.
GBPUSD day trade outlook
A Wednesday rebound, bouncing from above 1.3107/00 supports to reject Tuesday’s intraday setback and reinforce the recent spike higher with a prod back above 1.3215 to 1.3228, to retain upside pressures from last week’s push up through the key cycle peak at 1.3013 (to signal an intermediate-term bull shift), to keep the bias higher for Thursday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3228; break here aims for 1.3263 and maybe 1.3299.
- But below 1.3107/00 opens risk down towards 1.3036.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
An early December surge through the key 1.3013 peak signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3397, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
What changes this? Below 1.2879 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 1.2768 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.
4 Hour GBPUSD Forex Chart