- Global financial markets have seen some aggressive swings to tart 2020 with the tension in the Middle East, particular on the individual stock and equity index, alongside the Gold and Oil markets.
- On the Forex side, however, despite a choppy tone to USDJPY and Japanese Yen cross rates (due to the aforementioned tensions and the Japanese Yen’s position as a safe haven currency), FX markets have been somewhat calmer.
- For the Pound and GBPUSD in particular, the tone is slightly negative, primarily with the US Dollar firming against most other currencies, given market uncertainty.
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Negative theme
A Wednesday rebound failure from just above the 1.3164 resistance level (from 1.3169), after Tuesday’s head fake above 1.3195 resistance quickly stalled at 1.3212, retaining negative forces from last Friday’s selloff through the up trend line from the start of holiday season, to leave the bias lower into Thursday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.3080; a break below aims for 1.3053 and 1.3029/24, maybe towards 1.3000.
- But above 1.3169 opens risk up towards 1.3212 and 1.3240, maybe 1.3284.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
We see an intermediate-term range theme defined by 1.2904 to 1.3284.
Upside risks: Above 1.3284 sees an intermediate-term bull trend for and 1.3422, 1.3515, 1.3618 and 1.4000.
Downside risks: Below 1.2904 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.2768, 1.2516 and maybe 1.2197.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart