- The Conservative party lead over Labour has seemed to be stretching over the past week, with polls indicating a lead of up t 17-points now, up from 10-points last week.
- This, alongside the Brexit Party last week standing down candidates in marginal seats that the Conservatives could win, has increased the potential for a Conservative majority government after the 12th December general election.
- The financial markets prefer certainty rather than ambiguity and this outcome has seen a more positive tone for the Pound over the past week and past 24 hours, against both the Euro and US Dollar.
- Here we look at Cable (GBPUSD) upside risks
A Monday rally through notable 1.2976 resistance to build on Friday’s advance (above 1.2898 and 1.2917 resistances) and Thursday’s rebound from above the 1.2815/1.2799 support area, to leaves risks higher for Monday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.2985; break here aims for key 1.3013 and maybe 1.3053.
- But below 1.2923/20 aims for 1.2867 and then maybe opens risk up to 1.2835
Range breakout parameters: Range seen as 1.2656 to 1.3013.
- Upside risks: Above 1.3013 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.3177, 1.3397, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
- Downside risks: Below 1.2656 sees an intermediate-term bear trend to target 1.2516, 1.2405 and 1.2197.