Global stock averages retreat with higher oil price and Fed rate cut worries


Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • US and global stocks slide, with the DJIA’s worst four-day stretch since March 2023. It was triggered by soaring oil prices and cautionary remarks from the Fed’s Kashkari.
  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari raised concerns about potential interest rate cuts for 2024. He suggested that if inflation remains stagnant, the Fed could prolong maintaining its benchmark policy rate within the current range
  • Oil prices surged on Thursday amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel and Iran. The tensions raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
oil price
  • The US March Employment report came in strong, adding 303,000 jobs, far surpassing economists’ forecasts of 205,000. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.9% to 3.8%.
US monthly job change

Global financial market developments

  • Global equity averages suffered significant losses.
  • US and European bond markets sold off in price, with the US moving to multi-month yield highs.
  • The US Dollar Index sold off from a multi-month high.
  • Gold futures rallied again to another new record.
  • Oil futures surged to another new 2024 high.

Key this week

Central Bank Watch: The most important central bank activities this week are the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday ECB Monetary Policy Decision and Statement on Thursday. We will also observe the RBNZ and BoC Interest Rate Decisions and Statements Wednesday.

Macro Data Watch: Global CPI data is released through the week, with the US releasing Wednesday, China Thursday and Germany and France on Friday. Other standout data this week is US and China PPI, both out Thursday, followed by UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production on Friday.

DateMajor Macro Data
04/08/2024German Industrial production; EU Investor Confidence
04/09/2024Fed’s Kashkari speech; UK Retail Sales; Australia Consumer Confidence
04/10/2024RBNZ and BoC Interest Rate Decisions and Statements; US CPI (MoM, YoY); FOMC Minutes
04/11/2024China PPI and CPI (MoM, YoY); ECB Monetary Policy Decision and Statement; US PPI (MoM, YoY)
04/12/2024China Trade Balance; German CPI (MoM, YoY); UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production; France CPI; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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