Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities surged to all-time highs last week, led by technology stocks and optimism over Federal Reserve rate cuts and trade progress, while global markets from Asia to Europe also rallied on easing geopolitical tensions and stimulus hopes.
- A ceasefire between Iran and Israel has driven oil prices sharply down from their June peaks, undercut gold’s safe haven demand, and fueled a rally in equities as investors shifted focus back to market fundamentals and cyclical sectors.
- The US and China have signed an agreement to ease tariffs and accelerate rare earth mineral exports, aiming to stabilize supply chains and financial markets after months of trade tensions, though analysts warn of limited details.
- A wave of cautious optimism swept markets as several Fed officials signaled openness to interest rate cuts as early as July amid cooling inflation and softer economic data, though others stressed patience given tariff and inflation risks.
- US inflation nudged up in May as core PCE rose to 2.7% annually, while softer consumer spending and income hinted at cooling demand.
- A shortened trading week will feature closely watched US jobs data, global PMIs, and various global indicators that may shape expectations for central bank easing amid persistent trade tensions and slowing growth.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were lower.
- US and European bond were little changed, but slightly lower on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved to a multi-year low, before a bounce Friday.
- Gold futures surged high Friday, closing in on the record high.
- Oil futures prices rallied through the week and spiked Friday to a multi-month peak.
Key this week
Holiday Watch: It is the US Independence Day holiday on Friday July 4, US stock markets (cash and futures) are closed.
Central Bank Watch: It is a light week for central bank activity, however, throughout the week there are numerous speeches from Fed, ECB and BoE members.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data releases to look out for this week are the UK GDP on Monday, Global PMI data on Tuesday and Thursday, EU CPI data on Tuesday and most notably the US Employment Report on Thursday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 07/30/2025 | German Retail Sales and CPI; UK GDP; |
| 07/01/2025 | Global Manufacturing PMI; Japanese Large Manufacturing Index; German Unemployment Report; EU CPI |
| 07/02/2025 | EU Unemployment Report; US ADP Employment Change |
| 07/03/2025 | Global Composite and Service PMI; US Employment Report and Factory Orders |
| 07/04/2025 | US Independence Day holiday stock markets (cash and futures) are closed; German Factory Orders; EU PPI |
