Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Global stocks surged, seeing European and US stocks go higher, with several markets reaching fresh record highs. This was in response to the dovish outlook of Central Banks, with the SNB cutting rates, the Fed and BoE maintained their accommodative monetary policy outlooks.
- The Fed maintained interest rates steady while signalling three rate cuts for 2024. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s stance, underlining expectations for rate cuts contingent on favourable economic data.
- The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised many by cutting its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%. This made it the first major central bank to pivot from tighter monetary policy.
- UK CPI cooled to 3.4%, a significant deceleration from the 4% pace recorded the previous month. The BoE pointed to rate easing soon, with the potential for multiple interest rate cuts this year.
- The BoJ hiked from negative rates as expected. The decision terminated the world’s last negative interest rate policy and marked the BoJ’s first rate hike in 17 years.
Global financial market developments
- Global equity averages surged again last week back to new multi-year and record highs.
- US and European bond markets rallied in price to multi-week low yields.
- The US Dollar Index rallied further from a multi-week low,, towards the February multi-month high
- Gold futures spiked to a new record, before retreating.
- Oil futures broke to another new 2024 high, before setting back.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: No Central Bank activity of note, but we do get the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy meeting minutes on Monday. This should give further insight after last week’s interest rate hike. Plus, after last week’s Fed meeting we are watching for further indications for the path of future US interest rates from FOMC speakers.
Macro Data Watch: US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, GDP and PCE are all notable releases. The standout for the week is the US PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, but this is released on Friday, with US cash and futures markets closed!
Other: Friday March 30 is the Easter Good Friday holiday. US and European cash and futures markets are closed.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 03/25/2024 | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
| 03/26/2024 | Australia, German and US Consumer Confidence; US Durable Goods |
| 03/27/2024 | Australia CPi (YoY); EU Consumer Confidence |
| 03/28/2024 | Australian and German Retail Sales (MoM, YoY); UK, US and Canada GDP; German Unemployment; US PCE (QoQ); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
| 03/29/2024 | Good Friday holiday, European and US cash and futures markets closed; Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY), Unemployment Rate and Retail Trade (MoM, YoY); US PCE (MoM, YoY) |
