Daily Digest:
1 December: Global bonds and USTs backed up to higher yields Thursday, as US stock index futures were mixed, despite US PCE data showing inflationary pressures cooling. Friday's focus is on US and global PMI data, plus Powell speaks as the Fed go into its blackout period

Hawkish Fed and Strong Data Wobble Stock Indices


Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • Fed Minutes on Wednesday continues to suggest that the hawkish hike in the June meeting will be seen as a mere blip in the tightening cycle. The Minutes suggested that “almost all” participants believed that rates would be higher by year end.
Fed minutes
  • US ISM Services PMI on Thursday hit 53.9, the highest level since February, notably above consensus.
  • Thursday’s ADP Employment came in with a huge 497K, against an expected 228K.
  • The US Employment report featuring the Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday, however, came in at 209K jobs added, below consensus.
  • Global financial market developments
  • The major US stock averages were lower last week, as were European and Asian indices.
  • US and European Bond saw yields aggressively breakout from the upper end of consolidation ranges, to multi-month yield highs.
US 10yr yield
  • The US Dollar Index plunged on Friday.
  • Gold rebounded within consolidation, from near a multi-week low.
  • Oil broke out to the upside to a multi-week high.

Key this week

  • Central Bank Watch: Central bank focus is on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Bank of Canada (BoC) both on Wednesday.
  • Macroeconomic data: US CPI inflation will be a massive release this week on Wednesday. Through the week we also get Chinese CPI, UK Unemployment and GDP and German ZEW Economic Sentiment.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
07/10/2023China CPI & PPI
07/11/2023UK Unemployment and wage growth; German ZEW Economic Sentiment
07/12/2023Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy; US CPI; Bank of Canada monetary policy
07/13/2023UK GDP (monthly); US PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims
07/14/2023Michigan Sentiment (prelim)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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