Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Fed Minutes on Wednesday continues to suggest that the hawkish hike in the June meeting will be seen as a mere blip in the tightening cycle. The Minutes suggested that “almost all” participants believed that rates would be higher by year end.
- US ISM Services PMI on Thursday hit 53.9, the highest level since February, notably above consensus.
- Thursday’s ADP Employment came in with a huge 497K, against an expected 228K.
- The US Employment report featuring the Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday, however, came in at 209K jobs added, below consensus.
- Global financial market developments
- The major US stock averages were lower last week, as were European and Asian indices.
- US and European Bond saw yields aggressively breakout from the upper end of consolidation ranges, to multi-month yield highs.
- The US Dollar Index plunged on Friday.
- Gold rebounded within consolidation, from near a multi-week low.
- Oil broke out to the upside to a multi-week high.
Key this week
- Central Bank Watch: Central bank focus is on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Bank of Canada (BoC) both on Wednesday.
- Macroeconomic data: US CPI inflation will be a massive release this week on Wednesday. Through the week we also get Chinese CPI, UK Unemployment and GDP and German ZEW Economic Sentiment.
|Date||Key Macroeconomic Events|
|07/10/2023||China CPI & PPI|
|07/11/2023||UK Unemployment and wage growth; German ZEW Economic Sentiment|
|07/12/2023||Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy; US CPI; Bank of Canada monetary policy|
|07/13/2023||UK GDP (monthly); US PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims|
|07/14/2023||Michigan Sentiment (prelim)|