“Higher for Longer” Fed Mantra Sees Yields Spike, Stocks Plunge


Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • The Fed kept rates unchanged, but maintained its “higher for longer” mantra, with the dot plot chart indicating another rate hike in 2023.
Fed dot plot
  • The Swiss National Bank surprised markets with a pause, as another rate hike expected.
  • Lower than expected UK CPI caused the Bank of England to pause, when prior to the data a rate hike was priced in.
  • The Bank of Japan stayed dovish, somewhat rejecting growing expectations to a slight shift towards a more hawkish tone.
  • Global flash PMI data on Friday was disappointing in the US, European and the UK.
s&p global pmi
  • Growing US government shutdown fears have added to market uncertainty.

Global financial market developments

  • US index futures plunged last week for their worst week since March.
  • US and global yields surged higher, with USTs hitting multi-year highs.
  • The US Dollar Index probe cautiously, but resiliently higher, to new multi-month highs.
  • Gold futures moved higher then sold off.
  • Oil futures dipped and bounced to sustain bullish forces.

Key this week

  • Central Bank Watch: Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes are released Wednesday, and we get Chairman Powell of the FOMC, speaking on Thursday.
  • Macroeconomic data: The main data points to watch this week will be the inflation reports from Germany and the EU, US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders, plus the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, released on Thursday and Friday.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
09/25/2023German IFO Survey
09/26/2023US Consumer Confidence
09/27/2023Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes; Australian CPI; US Durable Goods Orders
09/28/2023German CPI; US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) QoQ; Fed’s Powell speaks
09/29/2023UK GDP; German Retail Sales and Unemployment; EU CPI; US PCE (MoM, YoY); Canadian GDP; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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