Daily Digest:
w/c 24th June - a relatively light data week, with spotlight on US GDP and Durable Goods Wednesday, then the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the MoM and YoY PCE data on Friday

Higher yields and renewed Fed hike worries, sees shift back to“risk off”

Intermediate

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • Good news for the US economy, is again bad news for stocks in the US and globally.
  • The US Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers Index report for August pushed to its highest level since February, beating expectations.
ISM
  • US weekly jobless claims came in below consensus, reflecting ongoing strength in labor demand.
  • This data rejected reports from two weeks ago that signalled the labor market was softening. 
  • Two weeks ago, rates fell to lower yields and stocks rallied, where last week this theme was reversed as yields were on the rise and stock averages sold off.
  • Apple suffered notable losses last week, also helping the down move in the broader averages, as it was announced that Chinese government employees would no longer be able to use iPhones.
  • Mixed macro data came in from China, as the PMI report was worse than expected, whilst trade data beat expectations.

Global financial market developments

  • US index futures had a negative week, to damage the prior recovery from mid-August.
  • US and global yields ended the week higher, with USTs close to recent multi-year peaks.
  • The US Dollar Index pushed higher to new multi-month highs.
  • Gold futures moved lower, as the USD strengthened.
  • Oil futures have pushed still higher to sustain bullish forces.

Key this week

  • Central Bank Watch: The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and press conference is on Thursday.
ECB
  • Macroeconomic data: The key data for the week is Wednesday’s US CPI release.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
09/11/2023Nothing of note
09/12/2023UK Employment report; German ZEW Survey
09/13/2023UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production; US CPI
09/14/2023Australian Employment report; ECB interest rate decision and press conference; US PPI and Retail Sales
09/15/2023Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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