- Today, Thursday 13th September sees both the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB) hold their regular monetary policy meetings.
- From a technical perspective, both GBPUSD and EURUSD are caught within intermediate-term, broader range environment.
- Recent US Dollar corrective weakness amid global “risk on” moves have seen both GBPUSD and EURUSD push towards the upper regions of these range environments.
- Below we take a look at the significant levels to watch into the two central bank meetings.
Risks shift back higher into the Bank of England Meeting
A strong rebound Wednesday from above 1.2962 support (from new support 1.2979) to reject Tuesday’s significant intraday setback and resume upside forces from the Monday-Tuesday surge above key 1.3043 resistance, to shift risks back higher for Thursday’s Bank of England decision.
The early September probe above key 1.3043 resistances neutralised the intermediate-term bear theme, for an intermediate-term range seen as 1.2784 to 1.3213, with risks skewed towards a bullish break.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3087 and 1.3126; break here aims towards 1.3173, maybe key 1.3213.
- But below 1.3010 opens risk down to 1.2979, maybe towards 1.2919.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2784 to 1.3213.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.3213 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3363, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.2784 sees a bear trend to target 1.2661, 1.2589, 1.2366, maybe towards 1.2109.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
Near term bias switches to positive into ECB
A Wednesday rebound, and although still contained below the peak at 1.1650, we see an easing of negative forces from the setback from late August, to switch the immediate bias higher for Thursday.
The latter August push above 1.1628 neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend and set an intermediate-term range theme, seen as 1.1791 to 1.1300 (with risks skewed towards a bullish break above 1.1791).
- We see an upside bias for 1.1659; break here aims for 1.1690 and 1.1733.
- But below 1.1564 opens risk down to 1.1525, maybe towards 1.1464.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1791 to 1.1300.
- Upside Risks: Above 1791 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
- Downside Risks: Below 1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1134, 1.1000 and 1.0839.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart