Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Stocks marked time early in the week before breaking to new record highs Thursday and Friday. The Nasdaq impressed, shattering a record that had stood for 27 months.
- The latest PCE data for January brought some relief to markets as the numbers aligned with expectations. PCE data excluding food and energy costs, rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago.
- PMI data was solid for China, Europe and UK. US data was mixed, with ISM manufacturing PMi indicating a contraction after a brief rise in January.
- Fed speakers remained cautious, highlighting their reluctance to cut U.S. interest rates swiftly, citing potential risks to inflation that could impede progress or even trigger a resurgence in price pressures. Powell will testify this week and is expected to reiterate the Fed’s patient approach to rate adjustments.
- The US February Employment report is in the spotlight this week, with forecasts suggesting a notable slowdown in job creation. Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to come in at 200k, down from January’s robust figure of 350k.
Global financial market developments
- Global equity index futures marked time before hitting new records.
- US and European moved to lower yields to end the week.
- The US Dollar Index marked time in consolidation.
- Gold futures surged Friday to the upper end of the intermediate-term range.
- Oil futures rebounded still further, through the upper end of a border range.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: A notable week for central banks, as we see the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate decision, Statement: and Conference Thursday. Plus, an important focus will be as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The initial focus this week will be on Services and Composite PMI data released Tuesday. US employment data is key for the week with the US ADP Employment Change out Wednesday, then the key US Employment report on Friday, with Canada also releasing their Employment data at the same time.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 03/04/2024 | Nothing of note |
| 03/05/2024 | Global HCOB Services/ S&P Global/ China Caixin/ US ISM Services and Composite PMI, Tokyo CPI (YoY); EU PPI (MoM, YoY) |
| 03/06/2024 | Australia GDP (QoQ, YoY); EU Retail Sales (MoM, YoY); US ADP Employment Change; BoC Interest Rate Decision and Statement; Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress |
| 03/07/2024 | China Trade Balance; ECB Interest Rate decision, Statement: and Conference; Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress |
| 03/08/2024 | German PPI (MoM, YoY); EU GDP (QoQ, YoY); US and Canada Employment reports |
