Pound paralysed post-Brexit extension

Intermediate
  • The UK government and EU agreed a flexible extension (flextension) to the Brexit negotiation process last week, which avoided a “no deal” Brexit, which would normally be expected to be positive for the Pound.
  • However, Sterling has been paralysed with muted directional progress versus the UD Dollar or Euro since the extension was agreed.
  • This has likely reflected the threats of a change of leader with the governing Conservative party, a potential new General Election (and possibly a Labour Part y Government) or another referendum.
  • GBPUSD has been caught within a narrow band for the past week (1.3028 to 1.3133), with a slight bias to the downside.

GBPUSD bias still lower

A small rebound and Monday but still capped by 1.3133 after Friday’s failure from here (just above our 1.3122/30 resistance area), to leave a negative bias and to just keep risks back lower for Tuesday.

The aggressive, mid-March advance through the late February peak at 1.3350 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3028; break here aims for 1.2985 and 1.2976, maybe key 1.2947.
  • But above 1.3130/33 opens risk up to 1.3196.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3608 and 1.4000
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2947 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD Chart

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