- The US Dollar has been broadly firm throughout the latest shift to a “risk on” theme for global equity markets through this week, for the start of February.
- This has seen GBPUSD accelerating, then grinding lower, particularly with mounting concerns regarding the difficulties that are posed by the trade negotiations with the EU, in a post-Brexit world.
- The threat into today’s always much watched US Employment reports, is skewed to the downside for GBPUSD, with focus on a key support at 1.2904
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Bear threat to key 1.2904
A selloff Thursday through 1.2956 and 1.2941 support after Wednesday’s erratic failure back from the very top of our 1.3060/70 resistance area (from 1.3069), to reinforce the extremely aggressive, early February plunge (to completely reverse the late January surge above 1.3173 resistance), keeping risks lower again Friday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.2921 and key 1.2904; a break below aims for 1.2882/78, maybe for 1.2827/23.
- But above 1.2979 targets 1.3010; above opens risk up towards 1.3069/70.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
We see an intermediate-term range theme defined by 1.2904 to 1.3284.
Upside risks: Above 1.3284 sets an intermediate-term bull trend and upside risk for and 1.3422, 1.3515, 1.3618 and 1.4000.
Downside risks: Below 1.2904 sets an intermediate-term bear trend and aims for 1.2768, 1.2516 and maybe 1.2197.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart