Pound poised for a more negative signal into another Brexit vote

Intermediate
  • The Pound remains under negative pressures in February, with threats of a potential No Deal Brexit growing, since the firm rally in January which was partially driven by a perception of a move away from this scenario.
  • The Government faces another series of votes today, which leaves Sterling vulnerable again to further downside pressures.
  • Here we focus on the GB Pound versus the US Dollar, GBPUSD, which is sat just above a significant technical support area and is also being encouraged lower by a strengthening US Dollar in the light of ongoing global economic slowdown concerns.

 

GBPUSD ongoing threat down to key 1.2831/29 support

A Wednesday probe just above 1.2939 resistance, but the n a failure from just above here and from below better resistance at 1.2996 (down from 1.2959), to reinforce Tuesday selloff to hit the top of the key 1.2831/29 area and downside forces from the earlier February plunge through the 2019 up trend line, to keep risks lower into Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term bullish outlook, BUT risk is now for a switch back an intermediate-term neutral theme below key 1.2831/29.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for the key 1.2831/29 area; break here aims for 1.2771 and maybe 1.2720.
  • But above 1.2939 opens risk up to 1.2996.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3175.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3299 and 1.3473.
  • What Changes This? Below 2831/29 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.2668 is needed for a bear theme.

 

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart


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US Dollar Index holds support and rebounds EURUSD seeds multiple negative signals, downside risks GBPUSD sends buy signal GBPCAD sets up more bullish AUDUSD negative and USDCAD buy signal USDTRY and USDBRL surge

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