- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) meet today to decide on interest rates.
- There is growing expectation for a rate cut, with the market going into this meeting with uncertainty.
- However, from recent comments from MPC members, it is clear this vote will be closer than recent meetings.
- Even if the BoE do not cut today interest rates, a far more dovish tone is expected to come out from the meeting, which could see the Pound weaker across Forex rates.
- Here we focus on GBPUSD.
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Threat stays lower
A negative consolidation Wednesday after Tuesday’s selloff through 1.2996 support to just hold above the important 1.2962/54 area (at 1.2975), to retain negative forces from last week’s rebound failure from just above the 1.3169 resistance level (from 1.3171), keeping the bias lower into Thursday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.2975 and the significant 1.2962/54 low; a break below aims for key 1.2904.
- But through 1.3065 targets 1.3107/10.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
We see an intermediate-term range theme defined by 1.2904 to 1.3284.
Upside risks: Above 1.3284 sets an intermediate-term bull trend and upside risk for and 1.3422, 1.3515, 1.3618 and 1.4000.
Downside risks: Below 1.2904 sets an intermediate-term bear trend and aims for 1.2768, 1.2516 and maybe 1.2197.