- Positive soundings last week on Thursday from talks between the UK and Ireland and then Friday between the UK and EU regarding a possible Brexit deal breakthrough have assisted global stocks higher and a stronger Pound.
- GBPUSD surged from 1.22 to 1.27 on Thursday-Friday.
- Concerns regarding a breakthrough over the weekend saw Sterling dip on Monday, but then further positive signals later into the session have seen GBPUSD rebound and keeps risks higher for this week’s key Brexit Summit.
GBPUSD: Upside risk intact, despite a setback
A Monday setback below 1.2589/88 and 1.2543/42 Friday supports, but then a firm intraday rebound and whilst above 1.2514 we still see upside forces from the Thursday-Friday surge through key 1.2582 swing resistance from September, to keep risks higher for Tuesday.
The impulsive advance through 1.2413 saw us shift our intermediate-term view to bullish.
- We see an upside bias for 1.2650; break here aims for 1.2707, 1.2735, 1.2784 and maybe 1.2814, 1.2852 and 1.2916.
- But below 1.2514 opens risk down to 1.2486, maybe 1.2404.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.2784.
- Higher targets would be 11.3000 and 1.3176.
- What Changes This? Below 1.2193 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight back to a bear theme.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart