Pound stays strong

Intermediate
  • In our report earlier this week on the Pound we highlighted a fundamental strengthening of the UK currency amid rumours that UK Prime Minister Theresa May was going to discuss with the Cabinet a possible delay to the UK’s date for leaving the EU (currently 29th March 2019).
  • Further developments have seen the likelihood of extending the leave date increase, therefore, making a no deal Brexit less likely, which is positive for Sterling.
  • Furthermore, the GBPUSD or Cable forex rate has pushed above significant technical resistance levels at 1.3218 and 1.3299, which sets risks for the Pounds and GBPUSD still higher, see more details below.

GBPUSD intermediate-term bull shift reinforced

A surge higher again Wednesday now through a key 1.3299 peak, to reinforce Tuesday’s very positive price action through 1.3218 and 1.3258 resistances, to leave risk higher for Thursday.

The late February surge through 1.3218 set an intermediate-term bullish trend

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3350 and 1.3363; break here aims for 11.3397 and maybe towards 1.3441.
  • But below 1.3231 opens risk down to 1.3140, which we would look to try to hold.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473 and 1.3608

  • What Changes This? Below 1.2967 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.2771 is needed for a bear theme.

4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD Chart 2019-02-28


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Current Market Analysis
Euro breaks down, GBPCAD threatens upside

US Dollar Index holds support and rebounds EURUSD seeds multiple negative signals, downside risks GBPUSD sends buy signal GBPCAD sets up more bullish AUDUSD negative and USDCAD buy signal USDTRY and USDBRL surge

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