Pound weakens ahead of another key Brexit vote

Intermediate
  • In our report here on  Wednesday 27th March we highlighted a resilient tone for GBPUSD ahead of the indicative Brexit votes that evening.
  • As we arrive today at 29th March, the previous Brexit deadline date, we stand ready for ANOTHER, third vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
  • Although this deal received a boost earlier this week, as both Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson have indicated they are willing to vote for her deal (albeit reluctantly), the Northern Ireland, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are reluctant to give it their support.
  • At the moment, it appears unlikely that PM May’s vote will pass and this has seen the Pound fall over the past 24 hours.
  • Here we again focus on GBPUSD.

GBPUSD Bias switches lower

A plunge Thursday through supports at 1.3149/41 and to reject the recent resilient consolidation, switching risks lower into Friday.

The aggressive, mid-March advance through the late February peak at 1.3350 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3033; break here aims for 1.3004/03, maybe towards key 1.2947.
  • But above 1.3110/12 opens risk up to 1.3169.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3608 and 1.4000
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2947 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD

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