Daily Digest:
w/c 24th June - a relatively light data week, with spotlight on US GDP and Durable Goods Wednesday, then the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the MoM and YoY PCE data on Friday

Quiet Thanksgiving Week. GDP, PCE, PMI and Powell Now in Focus

Intermediate

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • A quiet week for markets in the Thanksgiving holiday shortened week, with low volatility and limited price movement.
  • FOMC minutes highlight patient Fed, unanimously advocating for a strategy of proceeding carefully regarding future interest rate moves.
  • US Flash PMI data slightly disappoints and shows an employment decline for the first time since June 2020.
  • Nvidia earnings figures surpass expectations, but stock price stalls due to export restrictions affecting sales to organisations in China.
  • OPEC+ meeting delayed due to a dispute over African members’ output quotas, with traders awaiting a resolution on quotas.

Global financial market developments

  • US and global equity index futures consolidated and even nudged higher, building on the November surge, staying fully in bull mode.
  • US and global yields also consolidated the significant lower yield moves seen in November, with USTs hovering near multi-week yield lows.
  • The US Dollar Index was in negative consolidation mode, sustaining weakness from November losses and still and fully in bear mode.
  • Gold futures rallied further having previously reversed early November losses and are still aiming back towards multi-month highs.
  • Oil futures rebounded and failed back lower last week having previously sold off through notable supports in Q4, sustaining bearish forces.

Key this week

  • Geopolitical Events: The delayed OPEC+ meeting is now due to take place on Thursday.
  • Central Bank Watch: We get the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Tuesday and Fed Chair Powell speaks late Friday.
  • Macro Data Watch: A flurry of EU and German data Wednesday and Thursday, US GDP is out Wednesday too, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure US PCE (MoM and YoY) is also released Thursday. Friday brings global PMI from S&P Global and US ISM PMI data.
DateMajor Macro Data
11/27/2023Nothing of note
11/28/2023RBNZ interest rate decision, statement and press conference
11/29/2023EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE (QoQ)
11/30/2023Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales; German Unemployment; EU CPI; US PCE (MoM and YoY); Canadian GDP; OPEC+ Meeting
12/01/2023Global PMI from S&P Global; US ISM PMI; Fed Chair Powell speaks

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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