Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Stocks advanced again with the S&P 500 closing above 5,000 for the first time. The rally was fueled by optimism around cooling inflation, which raised expectations for company profits and supported stocks.
- Jerome Powell pushed back on early rate cuts in a 60 Minutes interview. He emphasised the importance of gathering more economic data to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path towards the Fed’s target of 2%.
- There is an increase in solvency risk faced by many small regional banks in the United States. This is due to falling commercial property values, particularly those on office buildings, that are now in negative equity, posing a risk of default as borrowers’ stakes are surpassed by their debt.
- The US Treasury conducted its largest-ever 10-year note auction, selling $42 billion of notes at a yield of 4.093%. This was slightly lower than anticipated, signalling robust demand from investors.
Global financial market developments
- Global equity index futures rallied again, with US averages again at record highs and the S&P 500 through 5000.
- US and European yields chopped, but edging to higher yields.
- The US Dollar Index consolidated gains from the start of February.
- Gold futures consolidated again, still at the lower end of the intermediate-term range.
- Oil futures rebounded after the prior week’s plunge lower for a neutral outlook.
Key this week
Other Events: Chinese New Year is this week, so mainland Chinese markets and other Asian markets will be closed, so Asian sessions could be particularly quiet.
Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, Fed speakers always in focus.
Macro Data Watch: A busy week, with employment data Tuesday for the UK and Wednesday for the EU. The standout is the US CPI data Tuesday and then UK CPI Wednesday, along with PPI data Wednesday for the UK and Friday for the US. We also see Retail Sales for the US Thursday and for the UK on Friday
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 02/12/2024 | Nothing of note |
| 02/13/2024 | UK Employment; EU and German ZEW Surveys; US CPI (MoM, YoY) |
| 02/14/2024 | UK inflation report including CPI (MoM, YoY); EU GDP (QoQ, YoY), Employment and Industrial Production |
| 02/15/2024 | Japan GDP (QoQ, YoY); Australian Employment; UK GDP (MoM, QoQ, YoY), Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production; US Retail Sales (MoM); US Industrial Production (MoM) |
| 02/16/2024 | UK Retail Sales (MoM, YoY); US PPI (MoM, YoY); Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
