Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US government avoids shutdown at the last minute, but fears kept a “risk off” bias into later September, but maybe the tide is turning?
- US and global yields hit multi year highs, with the US belly reflecting stagflation worries.
- Oil rally fuels inflation and slowdown fears, as Brent and WTI eye the $100 level.
- China property worries increasing as Evergrande fears grow, heightening China slowdown worries.
- US PCE inflation measures cool, maybe easing the “risk off’ theme into early October.
Global financial market developments
- US index futures plunged again last week to end September with their worst month of 2023.
- US and global yields surged higher, with USTs hitting multi-year highs again before dipping to lower yields at the end of the month.
- The US Dollar Index pushed notably higher, to new multi-month highs.
- Gold futures plunged as the US dollar rallied again.
- Oil futures dipped after an extension of bullish forces, slightly reluctant ahead of the $100 mark.
Key this week
- Central Bank Watch: Fed’s Powell speaks on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, we get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decisions and statements, respectively.
- Macroeconomic data: We get Global Manufacturing and Services PMI from S&P Global and US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday and Wednesday. The key data for the week is the always, much-watched US Employment report released Friday.
|Date||Key Macroeconomic Events|
|10/02/2023||Global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Fed’s Powell speaks; EU Unemployment|
|10/03/2023||RBA interest rate decision and statement|
|10/04/2023||RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; Global Services and Composite PMI from S&P Global; EU Retail Sales; US ADP Employment Change; US ISM Services PMI|
|10/05/2023||Nothing of note|
|10/06/2023||US Employment report; Canadian Employment report|