Daily Digest:
w/c 24th June - a relatively light data week, with spotlight on US GDP and Durable Goods Wednesday, then the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the MoM and YoY PCE data on Friday

Shutdown Fears + Oil and Yield Surge + Evergrande Woes => Risk Off

Intermediate

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • US government avoids shutdown at the last minute, but fears kept a “risk off” bias into later September, but maybe the tide is turning?
US Government shutdown
  • US and global yields hit multi year highs, with the US belly reflecting stagflation worries.
  • Oil rally fuels inflation and slowdown fears, as Brent and WTI eye the $100 level.
  • China property worries increasing as Evergrande fears grow, heightening China slowdown worries.
Evergrande
  • US PCE inflation measures cool, maybe easing the “risk off’ theme into early October.

Global financial market developments

  • US index futures plunged again last week to end September with their worst month of 2023.
  • US and global yields surged higher, with USTs hitting multi-year highs again before dipping to lower yields at the end of the month.
  • The US Dollar Index pushed notably higher, to new multi-month highs.
  • Gold futures plunged as the US dollar rallied again.
  • Oil futures dipped after an extension of bullish forces, slightly reluctant ahead of the $100 mark.

Key this week

  • Central Bank Watch: Fed’s Powell speaks on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, we get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decisions and statements, respectively.
  • Macroeconomic data: We get Global Manufacturing and Services PMI from S&P Global and US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday and Wednesday. The key data for the week is the always, much-watched US Employment report released Friday.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
10/02/2023Global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Fed’s Powell speaks; EU Unemployment
10/03/2023RBA interest rate decision and statement
10/04/2023RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; Global Services and Composite PMI from S&P Global; EU Retail Sales; US ADP Employment Change; US ISM Services PMI
10/05/2023Nothing of note
10/06/2023US Employment report; Canadian Employment report

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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