Daily Digest:
w/c 24th June - a relatively light data week, with spotlight on US GDP and Durable Goods Wednesday, then the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the MoM and YoY PCE data on Friday

Shutdown Fears + Oil and Yield Surge + Evergrande Woes => Risk Off


Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • US government avoids shutdown at the last minute, but fears kept a “risk off” bias into later September, but maybe the tide is turning?
US Government shutdown
  • US and global yields hit multi year highs, with the US belly reflecting stagflation worries.
  • Oil rally fuels inflation and slowdown fears, as Brent and WTI eye the $100 level.
  • China property worries increasing as Evergrande fears grow, heightening China slowdown worries.
  • US PCE inflation measures cool, maybe easing the “risk off’ theme into early October.

Global financial market developments

  • US index futures plunged again last week to end September with their worst month of 2023.
  • US and global yields surged higher, with USTs hitting multi-year highs again before dipping to lower yields at the end of the month.
  • The US Dollar Index pushed notably higher, to new multi-month highs.
  • Gold futures plunged as the US dollar rallied again.
  • Oil futures dipped after an extension of bullish forces, slightly reluctant ahead of the $100 mark.

Key this week

  • Central Bank Watch: Fed’s Powell speaks on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, we get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decisions and statements, respectively.
  • Macroeconomic data: We get Global Manufacturing and Services PMI from S&P Global and US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday and Wednesday. The key data for the week is the always, much-watched US Employment report released Friday.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
10/02/2023Global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Fed’s Powell speaks; EU Unemployment
10/03/2023RBA interest rate decision and statement
10/04/2023RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; Global Services and Composite PMI from S&P Global; EU Retail Sales; US ADP Employment Change; US ISM Services PMI
10/05/2023Nothing of note
10/06/2023US Employment report; Canadian Employment report

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

Comments on this analysis

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *