- We last looked at the Pound versus the US Dollar Forex rate, GBPUSD, over a week ago here and then saw a positive tone.
- The positive GBPUSD forecast remains very much intact after the market has dipped and rebounded from above support factors (see below).
- This bull theme is still primarily been driven by a still weak US Dollar, with global equity indices sustaining their “risk on” theme into August, and the US Dollar underperforming other major Forex rates as a safe haven.
- In addition, positive sounding regarding potential progress on EU-UK trade negotiations have lifted the Pound
- This leaves risk for further GBPUSD gains today and into the second half of August.
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Bull bias stays intact
A solid consolidation tone Thursday after Wednesday’s dip and a bounce from just below 1.3009 support, from 1.3005, to retain upside forces from the latter July surge above the 1.2813 June peak, to keep the risk to the upside into Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.3132 and the cycle high at 1.3186; a break here quickly aims for the key peak from March 2020 at 1.3200 and maybe 1.3247.
- But below 1.3005 quickly aims for 1.2981 support, which we would look to try to hold; below possibly opens risk down to 1.2944.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early July push above 1.2542 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.3200, 1.3286 and maybe 1.3515.
- What changes this? Below 1.2644 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.