Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Stocks and bonds sell off caused by concerns over Federal Reserve policy and a hotter-than-expected jobs report, partially correcting November-December gains.
- US Fed Minutes give little clarity on rate cut timing. While consensus leans towards eventual decreases, the aftermath of the swiftest rate increase in four decades leaves a cloud of uncertainty.
- PMI data stayed resilient, with S&P Global UK, US and Eurozone services PMI all beating expectations.
- The U.S. labor market ended 2023 on a strong note, with the US Employment report and ADP data beat expectations. Employers added 216,000 positions, surpassing the forecasted 170,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7%.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity index futures plunge lower to start 2024.
- US and European yields saw significant higher yield moves to multi-week yield highs.
- The US Dollar Index rallied.
- Gold futures sold off with the US Dollar gains.
- Oil futures rallied, with heightened tensions in the Middle east.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: No central bank activity of note, but as usual watching for Fed speakers.
Macro Data Watch: US CPI on Thursday is the standout in a relatively light data week.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 01/08/2024 | Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY & MoM) and Consumer Confidence |
| 01/09/2024 | Tokyo CPI; Australia Retail Sales; EU Unemployment Rate |
| 01/10/2024 | Australia CPI |
| 01/11/2024 | US CPI (YoY & MoM); |
| 01/12/2024 | China CPI (YoY & MoM) and PPI (MoM); UK GDP; US PPI (YoY & MoM); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
