Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities fell sharply as stronger than expected economic data and rising Treasury yields increased concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, with the S&P 500 down 2.59%, the Nasdaq Composite down 4.68%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.32% for the week. Technology and semiconductor stocks led the decline, while global markets also weakened amid ongoing concerns around inflation, central bank policy and geopolitical developments.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, comfortably ahead of expectations, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, highlighting the continued resilience of the labor market. The stronger than expected labor data pushed Treasury yields higher, weighed on technology stocks and reinforced expectations that US interest rates may remain elevated for longer.
- US PMI data pointed to continued economic resilience in May, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 54.0 and the ISM Services PMI increasing to 54.5, both comfortably in expansion territory. However, elevated price measures across both surveys reinforced concerns that inflation may remain persistent.
- US CPI data on Wednesday and PPI data on Thursday will be closely watched this week as investors assess the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were notably lower.
- US and European bond yields were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved higher through the week and surged up on Friday.
- Gold futures plunged Friday to a multi-month low close.
- Oil futures prices rallied into midweek, then setback to close little changed.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central bank attention will focus on policy decisions from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: Attention this week will center on US CPI data on Wednesday, which is likely to be the key macro release for markets. Elsewhere, investors will be watching Japanese GDP on Monday, Chinese CPI on Wednesday, US PPI on Thursday and German HICP on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 06/08/2026 | Japanese GDP; German Factory Orders; EU Investor Confidence |
| 06/09/2026 | UK Retail Sales; Chinese Trade reports; German Industrial Production and Trade Balance; US Existing Home Sales Change |
| 06/10/2026 | Chinese CPI and PPI; US CPI; BoC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference |
| 06/11/2026 | ECB Interest Rate Decisions, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference; US Initial Jobless Claims and PPI |
| 06/12/2026 | German HICP; UK GDP, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Consumer Inflation Expectations; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
